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DISCLAIMER: This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, futures, or options. Trading in securities, futures, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Such investments may not be appropriate for every recipient. The value of futures and options may fluctuate, and investors can lose more than their initial investment. Nothing in this communication should be interpreted as a promise, guarantee, or assurance, whether expressed or implied, by Magnelibra Capital Advisors. We do not guarantee profits or that losses will be limited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. While we strive to ensure the information provided is accurate and reliable, Magnelibra Capital Advisors makes no warranty, express or implied, and assumes no legal liability for the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information, product, service, or process mentioned herein.

All Rights Reserved. Magnelibra Capital Advisors LLC 2026.

This week the Nasdaq posted its longest winning streak since that same year 1992. 13 consecutive sessions, +12.17% while a war raged in the Middle East and global debt sat at record highs.

There is a pattern here that most people in finance understand but almost nobody will say out loud. The price of assets in this era is not a function of value creation. It is a function of liquidity creation.

The Federal Reserve does not earn money. It creates it -Digitally.

And it spends it by purchasing assets and injecting that purchasing power into the financial system. Since December alone it has done this to the tune of $230 billion.12.1% annualized.

The institutions closest to that spigot, the primary dealers, the mega-cap holders, the concentrated few, receive that liquidity first and deploy it fastest.

That is your 13-session Nasdaq futures settlement prices win streak. Here it is visually:

This data exposes the obvious fact that fundamentals are nothing more than excuses in the short term, however they do matter in the long run, but that long run can be decades in cyclicality. In today’s world we live much more by the minute and this is why many cannot see the truth for what it is.

That is your $2.51 trillion Magnificent Seven market cap gain in 8 days.

That is your war that the market simply ignored.

This is not pessimism. This is not doom and gloom.

This is the documented, data-driven reality of how 21st century financial markets actually operate. Understanding this is not optional if you want to build real, durable wealth in this environment. We have been trading and teaching this for three decades at the institutional level.

Now we are bringing it to everyone.

The game gets much more difficult to sustain with every passing day, its not just the law of large numbers, but time itself that exposes this quite devious methodology that bypasses natural organic process, economically and financially, but it delves far deeper into restructuring and reorienting society in a manner that inflicts max pain on the majority while a very few, a very select few reap all the benefits.

We always want our readers to dig deeper into these things and there are very few of us out there conveying this message, but at least its a starting point for your journey to learn more.

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Join the growing ranks and subscribe today. Our structured content and data that we provide is encapsulated in a way that will help you improve your own processes, allow you to think outside the box and remove linearity that is the detriment to success while navigating complex markets.

DISCLAIMER: This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, futures, or options. Trading in securities, futures, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Such investments may not be appropriate for every recipient. The value of futures and options may fluctuate, and investors can lose more than their initial investment. Nothing in this communication should be interpreted as a promise, guarantee, or assurance, whether expressed or implied, by Magnelibra Capital Advisors. We do not guarantee profits or that losses will be limited. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. While we strive to ensure the information provided is accurate and reliable, Magnelibra Capital Advisors makes no warranty, express or implied, and assumes no legal liability for the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information, product, service, or process mentioned herein.

All Rights Reserved. Magnelibra Capital Advisors LLC 2026.

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Ok now onto the subscriber only data, please think about supporting our work by subscribing or sharing across your social media platforms, we greatly appreciate it.

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Lets look real quick at the MEGA9s Market Cap total chart, this will probably bring in some technical buyers and hold us, but as always the war takes precedent, so tread cautiously:

Well here is what a $1.1 Trillion market cap bounce looks like:

Nothing more than technical buying here and no this doesn’t change the overall cyclical down shift! The 21 period weekly MA has been an excellent magnet and sell side entry point (magenta line) and with the 200p WMA above the 50p, well that says a lot about the technical nature of this market.

Let’s see where the QQQ can settle this week out at as its trading above our weekly resistance right now at 581. 596 should be the target close to get above for the bulls, but a close below 581 should keep the bearish tone overall in play:

Another chart we are watching closely is the U.S. Govt 10Y yield chart, the spike out of the triangle wedge and this weeks move sets up a battle for the pivot point at 4.23%:

As far as the Nasdaq futures the hurdle this week for bulls is 24250 and the bears will want to keep things below 23950:

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When we look at the QQQ ETF on the monthly charts we are leaning toward a test this year of the 465 level, which represents a move of 27% off the highs and ultimately we believe the QQQ reverts to 285 where we suspect the Fib. target/reversal area plus quantitative easing will put the floor in for the next cycle back up. 285 represents a move of 55% off the highs:

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Take a look at the US Govt 2Y who just today, auctioned off a fresh supply of $76Bn worth and saw a massive 2bp tail as buyers balked despite the +50bp differential from last months coupon!

We are targeting 4.02% to put a stop to this cash crunch selling, where we suspect yields will stabilize and bond market players come to their senses and realize the real future path of rates must be lower to accommodate the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical volatility. The 30Yr U.S. govt chart is also reaching some key levels as it once again approaches 5%:

Well what if the monetarists have already printed decades worth of future GDP and dragged it forward so fast that there isn’t any future GDP to steal from any longer? This is the situation the global economies find themselves in and we no longer believe the structural foundation of global financial markets risk and volatility are clearly or fairly priced. This poses a very unique set of problems for everyone as future liabilities can no longer be properly matched with a structurally sound long term investment.

Case and point are the fact that U.S. Treasuries are no longer or at least from what we can tell, exhibit “flight to quality” panic buying.

Currently yields are moving higher and doing so, not because of an alleged energy inflationary environment, but we believe there is a MASSIVE CASH COLLATERAL CALL, that is ongoing globally in the shadow banking and credit markets.

We knew it was just a matter of time, as we have seen massive discounts on global Real Estate markets that rival the GFC and in some instances even outpace the losses of that era. We couldn’t figure out how nobody seemed to be taking the balance sheet hit, well we now know the pervasive mark to market fudgery that has occurred across multiple venues by players that were allegedly sophisticated, such as Blackrock who can value an asset one day at par then zero the next day.

Here is an excellent article about the ongoing private credit problems from European Business Magazine on Private Credit

This says what we have always assumed about the shadow bank and credit markets, that without ZIRP (Zero interest rate programs) all the financial alchemy will come crashing down.

In fact we can attest to the majority of asset gains over the last 3 decades have been facilitated by the 9.7% annualized growth rate of the Federal Reserves asset base balance sheet. Without this increase the SP500 would have probably rivaled T-Bills. Without the central bank monetary expansion, ASSET PRICES collapse. Yes the boomer generation has been the largest recipient of this largesse, but that game is OVER!

So this is why we do what we do, so you can navigate things accordingly. Do not look to any rational explanations for daily 2% equity moves, as the forward indicators are now saying that volatility is here to stay, can your portfolios handle this vol? Is the future return profile conducive to taking on such volatility risk? Where does one hide, is the buy and hold and hope and pray still a viable strategy? We don’t think so and we think the next decade will look nothing like the last one. To say things only get more challenging here on out is an understatement.

We are talking about long, structural cyclical changes that come with all sorts of probabilities and given our starting point, well as we have said time and time again, investing is more a matter of when one starts rather than how long stays invested, that determines ones overall success.

We believe the future is a more digital decentralized one and its why we are positioning ourselves in that sphere. We still follow legacy traditional markets, but we suspect the transition in the future will come gradually and we believe financial markets will become much more stable and transparent and we want to be in the best position possible to take advantage of this new future.

So stay with us and we hope you continue to learn alongside us.

If you want to continue reading the rest of our analysis and technical charts and data, please subscribe and if not, well we genuinely hope you reconsider as our goal is simple, to make you a superior student of the markets and unlock the real reasons of why assets move the way they do!

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Game after game, fake story after fake story, fake headline after fake headline, the people are now seeing everything for what it is, one big scam, one big grift, and its something that George Carlin embodied so eloquently long ago with this epic rant of “Its One Big Club and You Ain’t In It!”

George Carlin - It's A BIG Club & You Ain't In It!

***WARNING***(explicit so use caution!)

If you think we are crazy, if you think we have zero clue on reality, research Edward Bernays and then see what you think. Look we get it, sometimes knowing so much is a terrible burden, yet I would rather know I was about to get punched in the face, then get suckered! Sorry that is just how we roll.

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk and we view the future of finance from a decentralized, tokenized lens, that will usher in a new era of finance, one designated for the individual investors and less so for centralized financial conglomerates.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. Our goal in our analysis is to connect the dots of global impactful elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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We have learned long ago that America’s debt pile has grown far past its utility and its a debt pile that has been built on the mountains of endless cash spent being the worlds hegemony. This debt which will hit $40 Trillion some time in the next few months, is destroying the global economies even if they do not know it. Too much of anything is never a good thing and we believe we are at the forefront of a global repositioning that will define the next 100 years. Throw in the exponentially increasing capabilities of AI and well, all bets are off as to where humanity will find itself in the next decade.

One thing is certain, the baby boomer debt fueled monetarist asset price inflation of the last 50 years will end because the structural dynamics of what pushed everything to those limits will no longer be viable. So few see it, so few can prepare for it, rather they will just be caught off guard and unless you continue to walk the path with us, you too will succumb to the coming changes and find yourselves much worse off. To put it plainly—EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED!

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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Let’s start this letter off with a little review of where it is the risk markets were preCovid, to where they are today. Our best proxy for this is not the SP500 future, but rather let’s look at the Nasdaq futures and the move that led up to February 2020 and then through today.

We can call the period of run up from 2018 to early 2020 as WAVE 1 and then the subsequent move down immediately following the covid pandemic we shall call this period, WAVE 2:

What we saw and what most investors would have felt up until preCovid was a move that what many would have considered a pretty decent run up for risk assets from 2017 to early 2020. Many would have assumed and probably correctly that the Q4 2018 top was a longer term top formation, but to only see a move to new highs right up to Covid. The Nasdaq moved from 6000 up to 9700 until the pandemic set in and panic selling dropped the index down toward 6600 a decline of 32%.

WAVE 3

Then the massive global monetary spigots were released and trillions upon trillions of new base money to be levered up hit the financial markets and boom, all of a sudden we see an explosion in risk asset prices, which looked at differently is merely a reflection of the devalued intrinsic value of the fiat currency knowns as the U.S. Dollar. The Nasdaq futures rose from the low of 6600 toward the highs near 16800 or an expansion of 1.54x:

If you want to continue reading the rest of our analysis and technical charts and data, please subscribe and if not, well we genuinely hope you reconsider as our goal is simple, to make you a superior student of the markets and unlock the real reasons of why assets move the way they do!

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Mad Max debuted in 1980 and it starred Mel Gibson in his first major film role. Max Max takes place in a dystopian future where society has broken down and Oil becomes the most sought after commodity. This film isn’t for everyone, but we enjoyed it and at the time of its release, despite its $400k cost, it ended up grossing well into the hundreds of millions. Perhaps it might be time for a re-release of this original at the box offices, considering the quagmire that we the world now finds itself in given the new assault on Iran.

As of this post tonight on Sunday night’s open Crude Oil futures are up nearly 20%:

The equity markets are taking it on the chin led by the Russel2k down -3.7%:

We here at Magnelibra have to always quantify scenarios, base case to worst case and with that, our worst case considers a prolonged war without diplomatic resolutions. American hegemony is and will always be consistently tested due to the nature of being the big dog on the block. However, sometimes the big dogs arrogance sometimes gets the best of them and things do not go as planned. This not going as planned, is our worst case scenario.

As long as the capacity to destroy the very foundation of the worlds capacity of extraction, production and distribution of global oil supplies, then the overall supply disruption will force global oil prices higher and higher and this oil shock given the post covid global money supply glut, could push prices far higher than many might fail to perceive.

With pretty much zero checks and balance on electronic pricing models via our global exchanges, there are risks of prices going wherever they want to, even if it means negative (below zero, like it did in April of 2020) or well above $250 a barrel. Even if all the quants and Ai systems believe the odds to be astronomical, this does not change the probability of being greater than zero that this can happen.

Last week already saw a terrible jobs number in fact it was a massive 6 sigma miss and now we have Oil about to go parabolic, combined with massive losses on this decades GFC catalyst also known as Private Credit, well then you have the economic fundamental backdrop that all points to the same direction:

CAPITAL PRESERVATION AND RISK OFF

We know the Trump Administration has run every scenario and we also know the arrogance of Trump and our hegemony is now a weakness in regards to effectively gauging real risk, because even if the overall odds of the United States ability to manage a successful campaign comes with a 99.9% confidence level, doesn’t mean that 0.1% failure rate could grow over time and start compounding the longer this skirmish goes on.

If the U.S. decides to go full scale and start bringing in ground troops, our base case for Oil will then rise to $200 per barrel and the economy will be thrown into the arms of a full fledged recession as prices across the board initially increase but with demand collapsing prices will then have to fall and the equilibrium of all things moves toward deflation and a global collapse of confidence.

This is a very real danger and its one that we need to absolutely and accurately quantify every step of the way.

On the quantum level we know reality and matter are an output of the probabilities that exist at any given point in time. This is important to understand because we have to acknowledge that our world is chaotic and dynamic and ever changing. This uncertainty is compounded with the sheer fundamental flaw of man and its propensity for “control.”

However, this doesn’t change the fact that this propensity for change means that every decision shapes the future, good, bad or indifferent and that is why we need an acute process that can establish a base level by which we then deviate from and this deviation can form many different path ways, and every choice changes the future outcomes probability.

Yes, we know it’s a lot to comprehend but on the base layer, it’s quite simple, every decision either moves the entire system toward a more favorable overall outcome or a more unfavorable outcome.

For example the worst case scenario:

U.S. attacks Iran → Iran attacks local U.S. bases and allies → US escalates presence in the Mid. East. → Iran requests China and Russia its allies to step up → Dooms Day Clock moves to 10 seconds to midnight from its current 85 seconds → Use of Nuclear weapons from any one of the players becomes inevitable.

Now let’s look at the best case scenario:

U.S. attacks Iran → Iran attacks local U.S. bases and allies → U.S. and Iran deescalate and move toward a diplomatic brokered peace detail and security framework for the next 25 years.

You see every step of the process comes with a probabilistic outcome to assess, the outcome for humanity changes with every major decision and this is why its important to stress diplomacy over forced bending of the knee!

We suspect the coalition NATO forces will have to start escalating the situation and try to assert itself in the SouthEast section of Iran to try and gain control of the straight of Hormuz. This means an increase in bombing in those sectors and then the escalation of airborne and ground troops to secure offensive and control positions in this region.

If this does happen, well then our worst case scenario starts to take shape and its something we will have to monitor very, very closely.

We hope we have outlined what to expect here now and we hope you are picking up what we are putting down. As we have many times over the last year, everything is cycling and those that have been lulled to sleep by a never ending monetary central bank spigot are in for a very rude awakening.

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So that you can become the most well informed member of your inner circles. So that everyone can look at you and wonder in sheer amazement as to,

“how in the hell does this guy know so much!”

Decades of artificially low interest rates and monetarist policy have concentrated wealth in financial assets held by a relatively small share of the population, leaving most participants outside this ecosystem. This imbalance is structural rather than cyclical. Corrective forces, whether regulatory, structural, or societal, are not a matter of probability but of timing.

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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Total nonfarm payroll employment data for February 2026 posted a loss of 92,000 jobs. This was a significantly below the initial estimates for a gain of 50k to 60k. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4% up 1/10th a percent.

We will review all the market action from today in our weekend post, for now, onto the daily subscriber data.

WHY YOU SHOULD SUBSCRIBE:

So that you can become the most well informed member of your inner circles. So that everyone can look at you and wonder in sheer amazement as to,

“how in the hell does this guy know so much!”

Decades of artificially low interest rates and monetarist policy have concentrated wealth in financial assets held by a relatively small share of the population, leaving most participants outside this ecosystem. This imbalance is structural rather than cyclical. Corrective forces, whether regulatory, structural, or societal, are not a matter of probability but of timing.

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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The stock market put in a technical bounce as we have demonstrated through our MEGA9s market cap chart that the 200p moving average is indeed a very important level. You can see this chart below and the shelf that is now building:

The dome formation is formidable and does designate a longer term top is in place. We see the fundamentals matching this formation as well on the longer term cycles. Remember guys, markets move in cycles, in trading we generally refer to this, especially in regards to equities, that,

“bull markets take the staircase up and bear markets take the elevator down!”

When we do finally get the forced real selling, the forced retail selling, then the markets will readjust their trading levels lower. For now when we look at the Nasdaq futures chart we have been in a basing formation for quite sometime. This range needs to be broken one way or the other and that will usher in the next range, so on and so forth:

Decades of artificially low interest rates and monetarist policy have concentrated wealth in financial assets held by a relatively small share of the population, leaving most participants outside this ecosystem. This imbalance is structural rather than cyclical. Corrective forces, whether regulatory, structural, or societal, are not a matter of probability but of timing.

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund, known as BCRED (Blackstone Private Credit Fund), is experiencing significant redemptions.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Investors requested withdrawals totaling 7.9% of the fund’s shares in Q1 2026 (the current quarter), which is a record high and well above the typical quarterly limit of 5% for this type of non-traded fund.

• The fund is valued at around $82 billion.

• This led to total payouts of approximately $3.7 billion to redeeming investors.

  New commitments/inflows were about $2 billion, resulting in net outflows of roughly $1.7 billion for the quarter.

• Blackstone is fulfilling all requests in full (as it has every quarter since inception), by upsizing a tender offer to cover 7% of shares and Blackstone itself (plus employees) stepping in to cover the remaining 0.9% (around $400–700 million injected to stabilize it).

• The fund had strong liquidity (over $8 billion at year-end 2025), so no forced asset sales or gating/redemption halts are reported—unlike some peers.

Why This Is Happening? The surge reflects broader unease in the private credit sector:

• Write-downs, restructurings, and overhauls at other firms.

• A chain reaction from peers like Blue Owl, which suspended redemptions on some non-traded funds.

• Growing scrutiny of retail/individual investor access to private credit (BCRED targets wealthy individuals with semi-liquid access), amid fears of liquidity crunches if as rates stay high or defaults rise.

• Some analysts view BCRED as a “barometer” for private credit confidence—its performance (this fund drove ~13% of Blackstone’s revenue last year) signals waning retail enthusiasm.

This next chart highlights the damage:

In other news yesterday a major move in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B and BRK.A) shares dropped significantly.

• BRK.B closed at $480.17, down $24.78 or -4.91%

• BRK.A similarly fell around -4.89% to close near $720,000

This was one of the largest single-day declines in recent years for the stock, wiping out tens of billions in market cap. Also risking its inclusion in our MEGA9s data tracker, we will monitor it closely as Walmart may replace BRK.B this week and would signify a major market structural shift overall.

The sell-off came right after Berkshire released its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 earnings over the weekend (late February/early March 2026), along with the first shareholder letter from new CEO Greg Abel (who took over from Warren Buffett at the start of 2026).

Key Metrics:

1. Sharp decline in operating earnings

2. Heavy hit to insurance operations (Berkshire’s core engine):

   -Insurance underwriting profits dropped ~54% in Q4 (to ~$1.56 billion from much higher prior-year levels).

   -Geico and other insurance/reinsurance units faced pressure: continued customer retention challenges, pricing competition as more capital floods the market, and rivals cutting car insurance rates.

   -Abel’s letter warned of ongoing headwinds in property/casualty (P/C) insurance, with Berkshire planning to write less business to maintain discipline (potentially ceding market share but protecting margins).

At least they are recognizing the facts that we have been highlighting in our letters about the structural weakness of the general base economy!

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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Hans Zimmer - Time (YouTube KlayaR_)

Over the past week, the fragility of the financial system has become impossible to ignore. Turbulence in the banking sector, volatility in private credit, and a rapidly escalating geopolitical conflict have pushed markets decisively into risk-off mode. At the same time, rumors around Jane Street and potential legal scrutiny for Citadel reinforce a core reality: a small group of highly capitalized, systemically important funds can move markets with disproportionate force.

This pressure is amplified by the shift in monetary policy, which is now exposing structural weaknesses that easy liquidity once concealed. Quantitative easing inflated asset prices through leverage and multiplier effects, and quantitative tightening is running those same dynamics in reverse. Commercial real estate write-downs have been building for years, and stress is now emerging within financial institutions themselves. Losses are mounting, and their true scale is increasingly difficult to hide.

Some investors remain partially shielded by large capital pools, private equity structures, or long-duration pension allocations. These buffers may delay immediate pain, but they do not eliminate the underlying systemic risk. The headwinds are real, broad, and accelerating, and ignoring them could prove costly.

Decades of artificially low interest rates and monetarist policy have concentrated wealth in financial assets held by a relatively small share of the population, leaving most participants outside this ecosystem. This imbalance is structural rather than cyclical. Corrective forces, whether regulatory, structural, or societal, are not a matter of probability but of timing.

Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.

The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.

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“If you can create it in your mind and believe it in your heart, then you can achieve it!

We stand firm in the power of positive affirmations, optimistic mindsets, and the relentless pursuit of the best possible outcomes. When you really think about it, the alternative- negativity and stagnation offers nothing worthwhile.

That’s why we keep pushing to become the strongest, clearest version of ourselves. This is why when you awake each day, claim that day, say this is going to be a great day and great things are going to happen today. Our creator knows no bounds and limitations, as quantum physics is proving, what and how we observe matter, changes its behavior. This is a fact and an attribute of our intelligently designed system, harness it, all the power is within you. Everything you think and do, effects not only your reality, but everyone else’s as well!

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The risk markets saw a decent bounce today, as the market hope is resting upon good news from Nvidia after earnings today, however the post market action isn’t all that jacked up about the report as Nvidia is basically unchanged:

NVIDIA Earnings Key Highlights:

• Record quarterly revenue: $68.1 billion, up 20% from the prior quarter and 73% year-over-year. This beat analyst expectations (around $65.9–66.2 billion)

• Earnings per share (non-GAAP/adjusted): $1.62, beating estimates of about $1.53.

• Full fiscal year 2026: Record revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year.

• Gross margin: Around 75% in Q4, strong and in line with or slightly ahead of expectations.

• Guidance for Q1 FY2027: Revenue expected at $78.0 billion (±2%), or roughly $76.4–79.6 billion range — this topped Wall Street consensus (around $72–73 billion), signaling continued strong momentum and helping counter any AI “bubble” concerns.

• Other notes: CEO Jensen Huang emphasized “skyrocketing” adoption of AI agents, hyperscalers “racing to invest in AI,” and massive capex increases among major cloud providers fueling demand. Net income for the quarter was around $43 billion (up significantly YoY)

We aren’t so bullish on this stock as it is priced for perfection and certainly not priced for Ai disruption or any significant fumble upon any of the industries players. There is already talk that inventory build is a growing concern and that financial wizardry is at play here.

In regards to their inventory:

NVIDIA’s fiscal Q4 2026 stood at $21.403 billion on the balance sheet, up significantly from $10.080 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. This roughly doubled year-over-year, reflecting the massive ramp in production and demand for AI-related products like Blackwell GPUs and related systems.

• Inventory increased from $19.784 billion at the end of Q3 FY2026, showing continued build-up to support strong growth.

• Management noted in the earnings materials that they have “strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters,” with total supply-related commitments at $95.2 billion. This indicates proactive stockpiling amid ongoing high demand and efforts to mitigate supply chain risks.

• No major concerns were flagged around excess inventory or write-downs in this quarter.

Goodwill was reported at $20.832 billion as of January 25, 2026, a substantial increase from $5.188 billion at the prior year-end. This jump likely stems from acquisitions during fiscal 2026 (e.g., references in related filings to deals like technology licenses or entities contributing to Compute & Networking, including significant amounts potentially tied to AI-related assets or hires).

Overall, inventory levels are elevated but aligned with NVIDIA’s explosive growth trajectory and forward-looking supply securing. We take a more contrarian approach here and do not believe all this hype and demand will make its way through. There will be unforeseen disruptions, there always are!

Anyway tomorrows market reaction overall will set the tone for the coming weeks, the markets love the initial bounce, but will it last?

$185 is huge for us here in Nvidia, as long as we trade above, bulls remain in control, a move below and the sellers gain the advantage:

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