2025 Is Here! New Tracker Added
Ok guys welcome to 2025, where we expect a year full of ups, downs and a lot less one way trading as the FOMC continues to adjust their monetary policy. We have a new incoming administration that has set an America first policy and what that means, well we really don’t know yet, stronger dollar? Tariffs? Lower interest rates? A lot of uncertainty is what drives markets mad and thus, 2025 should provide ample of trading opportunities for everyone. So let’s first take a look at yesterday’s settlements for the first trading day of the year as Bitcoin and Silver were the standouts of the day +3.46% and +2.25% respectfully and RBOB up 2.13% as well and the Euro Currency the big loser -1.02%:
As far as the rolling net changes the energy sector is the clear standout with the Nasdaq futures the big loser over the last 5 trading sessions:
AS far as our MCA Global Alternative Benchmark Sentiment indicators there were no changes to the model:
We are going to track the model with a standard 1 unit or contract based on the sentiment just to add a historical dollar value to see how much capital at risk just 1 unit actually provides on daily basis given the models sentiment as the indicator. This is all for educational purposes if you want to get involved in a managed program like this please go to our website for more details, here is the link, Magnelibra the Commodity Trading Advisor
For the newsletter we will add the tracker and keep track on the monthly data for you here at the Futures Model Tracker note the only difference from the Sentiment tracker above and the tracker below is that Bitcoin is not included in our GABP above because it tracks the Coinbase version but the tracker below does include it. Also we will not be tracking the Dollar Index as our proxy for that is the FX currency futures themselves. Also please note the hypothetical AUM level for this is set at $250k which will allow us to create a hypothetical P+L for dollar and percentage tracking purposes:
Ok we hope this data helps you guys understand both an alternative strategy and how it can be implemented, as well as provide you with the actual dollar risks involved in such a program. Obviously the biggest factor to understand is that alternatives provide another avenue to capture asymmetrical risk/reward profiles and can be specifically tailored to a given risk tolerance. Dollar risk can be offset by smaller position sizing, by micro futures contracts and this dynamic feature allows managed accounts to be customized to fit pretty much any risk tolerances there are.
Ok let’s take a look now at the MEGA8s where we have reset all the values to start fresh for 2025. Our goal as always is to track the most coveted stocks and see if we start to see any divergent patterns emerge. By patterns we mean are certain components of this group outpacing others? Are the grouping as a whole over or underperforming the broader markets? So it is important to look at all the components and it is a way for you to look at a long only basket of high quality and then look at how we potentially hedge our long only directional risk as well. As always we try to equalize the investment across the board to create an equal weighting and start out at or near the $100k marker. For now there is not a hedge for the grouping, we will explore that next Monday:
As far as equities, we saw this chart and wanted to share it, it is pretty significant as to the overzealousness of concentrating value in such a few heavy hitting names:
We will also continue to track the MicroStrategy Gamma game where this week the option hedge will be in the money it looks like and we will discount our total premium intake to reflect this. What we mean by this is that for this trade which sells a weekly call option, with the intent that the option will expire worthless and we capture that premium sold. However as is the case for this week, and short the 322.50 calls we will adjust the value of the stock to reflect a liquidation of the shares there at 322.50 and then a repurchase of the underlying at the closing day’s price, just to keep all the data as fair and equalized as possible. Our goal for this is to track the actual profitability of strategy like this as well as to look out for any significant trading activity in the stock:
Alright, that is it for now, its been a lot of retooling and adjusting for the new year’s data and we hope you guys are learning alongside our work. We hope we are giving you insight, data and tools to formulate and enhance your own strategies. As always please subscribe if you can, share at the minimum and if possible just toss a like up there! Till next time have a great weekend and we will post today’s trading update some time this weekend!
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of or from Magnelibra Capital Advisors. Magnelibra the Commodity Trading Advisory and its proprietary long/short commodities, futures and options managed accounts may hold long and or short positions in the various futures and markets that Magnelibra covers. We will never claim that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, we make no warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed. If you are interested in opening an individual managed futures and options account to compliment your overall investment portfolio you can visit our website at https://magnelibra.com for more information. We are implementing a new trading program launching at the start of the new year, which will include access to Bitcoin futures and options. Please contact or make inquires directly to our introducing broker Capital Trading Group, please contact Nell Sloane at nsloane@capitaltradinggroup.com
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