4th of July Week NFP on Thursday
Trading Data Update June 27 2025
It is the 4th of July Holiday week and since Friday is the 4th of July, the Non Farm Payroll report will be released on Thursday. The estimates care calling for an increase in 115k with an uptick of 1/10th in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Even with this uptick everyone’s new favorite recession indicator will still be safe from being triggered. The Sahm Rule is an economic indicator used to identify the onset of a recession in the United States. Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, it’s based on changes in the unemployment rate and is designed to provide a simple, real-time signal of economic downturns. Here’s a concise explanation:
The Sahm Rule states that a recession is likely underway if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest level in the previous 12 months.
With an assumed June 2025 unemployment rate of 4.3%, the Sahm Rule is not triggered, as the three-month moving average (4.23%) is only 0.13 percentage points above the 12-month low of 4.1%. This indicates the U.S. economy is not in a recession as of June 2025, per the Sahm Rule, though the labor market is cooling.
Ok so that is the big number to watch and as you know we were closely watching the QQQ ETF to see where it would close the week out on, and sure enough, right back into the large trend triangle:
The SP500 weekly resistance has been broken and the 6370 is the first expected resistance with 6075 support:
As far as the Nasdaq futures weekly resistance at 23500, with 22025 key support below:
The spread between the SP500/NQ with another new low:
So much for lower rates hurting one’s currency as the Suisse National Bank (SNB) the first central bank to move back to ZIRP has seen nothing but demand for the Franc up a solid 16% off the 2025 lows:
The Euro has also had a great run and continues to target new highs:
Another chart we are closely eyeing is Gold Futures, $3205 is massive on the week as both support and our bull/bear pivot:
We would also like to note that Copper is now the years best performer and looks like it at least wants to test the old highs near 5.40:
Finally we keep seeing posts on X about the $50m wedding for Bezos, we are happy for the tycoon tying the knot and for those that think $50m is a lot, well just realize that to the average American, its like spending $225 bucks (chump change)!
Alright that is it for the free look, (this week is free so read on and see what you are missing) we have all the MTR Subscriber data and trading trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system and perhaps implement some of our trading trackers into your own investment profiles! If you are sick of stagnating, sick of losing then join the ranks of MTR Subscribers!
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Magnelibra CTA Futures Market Trend Sentiment (Our proprietary commodity trading advisory futures market sentiment long/neutral/short market flows indicator) The portfolio is made up of the core futures markets we cover and the indicators are for single contracts of the futures market, whether long, short or zero neutral. The P+L is generated via the starting daily position and the ending daily settlement. This is considered a high risk alternative strategy. However most investors should leave a portion of their overall portfolio within a high risk basket. Some of the percentages of the overall portfolio dedicated to high risk should vary from 3% to 18% depending on ones overall time to invest and risk profiles. We added the Sharpe to our data now as well for those quantitative types!
MCA CTA markets sentiment changes: NQ to +1 and NG to 0:
Daily Settlement Sheet (Magnelibra’s Futures and Cash bond market coverage of the daily settlement prices and dollar value of the contracts given move)
The U.S. Bond Yield Curve (This is our daily graphic displaying the U.S. bond market yield curve changes. We follow the 2 year thru 30 year durations. Please note that bond prices work inversely to yield changes so for instance if bond prices are rising and moving upward, then their yields are falling or moving downward. We also track the relationship between the durations known as US YCurve Spreads, when we list it as 2s5, we are comparing the yield differential between the 2 year vs the 5 year with the positive/negative viewed from the higher durations perspective.)
The U.S. Yield curve with a muted day all together and mostly parallel shift:
The 5 & 30 Day rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers (The last 5 trading days and 22 trading days net changes)
Copper is the top performer on the year +22.6% and finally overtaking Gold who has been the clear leader all year long, well not anymore! This weeks big loser was the energy markets:
Magnelibra MEGA9s Portfolio Tracker (This is a synthetic long only portfolio of the Top 9 largest equities by market cap. We started this tracker because we understand Ai dominates the investment landscape and operates in a binary construct. What we mean is that it issues a buy or a sell and will do so in reinforcing mechanisms, meaning if alpha is rising it will add, if it is falling it well sell and remove. We also created a “hedge” for those that want a more active approach to tactically maximizing their long only static portfolio of equities)
The MEGA9s market cap gained $178Bn on the day. AMZN and Alphabet the big winners. The option hedge cost us most of the upside gains this week, but you can’t win them all, we will continue to monitor the upside and most likely will look to try and sell a QQQ 550 call somewhere above $5:
MEGA9s total market cap chart (This chart represents the total market cap of the MEGA9s and lists the 21pMA in pink along with the 50p and 200p MA)
The MEGA9s are looking to regain that trend slope, which would be accomplished on another 13.5% push to the upside!
StrategyB/ BTC Trading Tracker (Bitcoin vs MSTR equity, Our MicroStrategy Covered Call Portfolio Tracker, Long 100 shares MSTR and short 1, 4% to 10% out of the money call on Monday’s open each week)
This weeks option sale will most likely be the 395 or higher, depends on the open tomorrow. Volatility continues to drop now -24% QoQ:
MSTR premium over outright Bitcoin is 1.80x. Total BTC owned now is 592,345. Their dollar cost average is $70,681. MSTR BTC Yield from our calculations is 11.76% well below their 15% target level:
Ok that is it guys!
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