All Eyes on Nvidia! BTC and MSTR Bounce?
Subscriber UpdateFEB252026
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The risk markets saw a decent bounce today, as the market hope is resting upon good news from Nvidia after earnings today, however the post market action isn’t all that jacked up about the report as Nvidia is basically unchanged:
NVIDIA Earnings Key Highlights:
Record quarterly revenue: $68.1 billion, up 20% from the prior quarter and 73% year-over-year. This beat analyst expectations (around $65.9–66.2 billion)
Earnings per share (non-GAAP/adjusted): $1.62, beating estimates of about $1.53.
Full fiscal year 2026: Record revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year.
Gross margin: Around 75% in Q4, strong and in line with or slightly ahead of expectations.
Guidance for Q1 FY2027: Revenue expected at $78.0 billion (±2%), or roughly $76.4–79.6 billion range — this topped Wall Street consensus (around $72–73 billion), signaling continued strong momentum and helping counter any AI “bubble” concerns.
Other notes: CEO Jensen Huang emphasized “skyrocketing” adoption of AI agents, hyperscalers “racing to invest in AI,” and massive capex increases among major cloud providers fueling demand. Net income for the quarter was around $43 billion (up significantly YoY)
We aren’t so bullish on this stock as it is priced for perfection and certainly not priced for Ai disruption or any significant fumble upon any of the industries players. There is already talk that inventory build is a growing concern and that financial wizardry is at play here.
In regards to their inventory:
NVIDIA’s fiscal Q4 2026 stood at $21.403 billion on the balance sheet, up significantly from $10.080 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. This roughly doubled year-over-year, reflecting the massive ramp in production and demand for AI-related products like Blackwell GPUs and related systems.
Inventory increased from $19.784 billion at the end of Q3 FY2026, showing continued build-up to support strong growth.
Management noted in the earnings materials that they have “strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters,” with total supply-related commitments at $95.2 billion. This indicates proactive stockpiling amid ongoing high demand and efforts to mitigate supply chain risks.
No major concerns were flagged around excess inventory or write-downs in this quarter.
Goodwill was reported at $20.832 billion as of January 25, 2026, a substantial increase from $5.188 billion at the prior year-end. This jump likely stems from acquisitions during fiscal 2026 (e.g., references in related filings to deals like technology licenses or entities contributing to Compute & Networking, including significant amounts potentially tied to AI-related assets or hires).
Overall, inventory levels are elevated but aligned with NVIDIA’s explosive growth trajectory and forward-looking supply securing. We take a more contrarian approach here and do not believe all this hype and demand will make its way through. There will be unforeseen disruptions, there always are!
Anyway tomorrows market reaction overall will set the tone for the coming weeks, the markets love the initial bounce, but will it last?
$185 is huge for us here in Nvidia, as long as we trade above, bulls remain in control, a move below and the sellers gain the advantage:
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