Apple Earnings Boom or Doom for Nasdaq

RBOB/Crude update

A quick market look here at the US yield curve which is once again in a bear steepening move with the 2Y basically unchanged while the 30Y is +14.2 bp:

We have relayed this move over the prior weeks to our subscribers and we continue to see the front end of the curve outperform the longer end as the 2Y is clearly the star performer on the day:

We also have Apple and Amazon who will release earnings after the close today and the big question is, will it be enough to punch the Nasdaq higher or will it break the long standing trend channel that has been in place for basically all of 2023?

Consensus estimates for Apple revenue will be $90.29 billion, based on the reports of 25 analysts. Earnings per share estimate is $1.36, based on opinions from 28 analysts. -Yahoo

Amazon is expected to report Q2 earnings per share of 35 cents, which would be a massive increase from the year-ago loss of 20 cents. Meanwhile, Q2 revenue is expected to be roughly $131 billion, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year. -Nasdaq

As far as the chart for the Nasdaq futures, here is what we are talking about, the fact that the Nasdaq is back at the trendline and that we have two major players posting earnings today. This will be a game changer, telling us that the trendline is valid and still intact, or it will slice thru it like butter and change the momentum that has been on going since the beginning of the year:

As far as Apple, well seems like some sellers have begun to show up and will see if today’s earnings present better levels to sell:

Here is the current Amazon chart where sellers have emerged at the $136 area and its now below $130. We would expect sellers to continue to pile in at these levels:

We also wanted to highlight the RBOB/Crude spread that we reversed out of to start the week. This thing has collapsed, a bit too far too fast for our expectations but we agree with the move and to be honest, it still hasn’t taken out July’s lows. So there is still plenty of room here, but a few heavy hitters have piled in now…

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