April 18th MTR Subscriber Data Tracker Updates -Technical Look
Equity market bias back short now
Hey everyone, hope everyone is enjoying this Easter Weekend with family and friends. We just wanted to get this update out here today and go over a bunch of technical charts. We have noticed that the recent technical bounce in the equities hasn’t really garnered much interest in renewing buying power vigor. What it seems to us is that this recent equity rally is nothing more than a technical bounce working off oversold conditions.
Another thing we want to focus on is the fact that the global central banks continue to drop interest rates and the ECB was the latest late last week dropping its benchmark rate down by 25bp. Christine Lagarde the ECB president, had this to say,
"Downside risks to economic growth have increased,"
So despite all the calls over the last few months, many have made in regards to INFLATION picking up as it did in the 1970s and that many people were drawing analogs to that time frame, but we continued to debunk this false analog. We look at the underbelly of the global economic engine, in particular global trade and felt that the world was slowing not gaining steam. We also understood that all the Covid stimulus money has now been filtered to the top 1% in the form of usury or asset price increase and we would now be moving into a much more slower, growth, lower production, and restrictive pricing power by the producers as consumers pull in the reigns. All of this combined continues to drive our deflationary, global slowdown thesis and we believe the ECB and the rest of the global central banks are starting to recognize this.
We know the global central banks work in unison, and with the ECB and SNB cutting like mad, it will only be a matter of time before the FOMC continues down this same path. We don’t feel that they will cut at the May meeting, rather we believe they need higher coupons to continue for a bit longer at the US Treasury auctions which have a quarterly auction of new 30s and 10s in May. After these auctions we feel the FOMC will be open to driving the short rate down lower and this will also give the equity markets a signal that the FOMC also sees a global slowdown occurring.
We truly believe the global monetary system glue is coming unbound and that the future of all risk assets is truly at stake. We believe many have be lulled to sleep over 2 decades of FOMC support for global risk markets and that the next decade, will look nothing like the last. We feel there are major changes coming in regards to what investors actually perceive as both a safe haven asset and what they perceive as overall risk!
This is profound because we believe traditional assets like stocks and bonds are about to undergo a complete makeover by the digital decentralized future that investing will look much different than it ever has before. Its complicated guys, we won’t sugar coat it, but what we want you guys to understand is that the future returns on assets are going to be highly selective and will come from assets that provide real positive cash flow and not some hyper financialized arbitrage via structured finance. We feel the days of that type of factor investing is over. We will bring you more on this as time allows us, but this is a warning to you longer term types that think its as simple as buying an index ETF and walk away, nothing is further from the truth.
Alright, let’s hit up the technical charts, first up Bitcoin, our new level in the sand is $87,500 Bulls would need to get back above here in order to reassert distribution power, failure at this level will cycle us back down again:
Next up the Nasdaq futures, 19k was big last week and 19100 will be key resistance again this week with 17650 the support area, but the trend is down:
SP500 futures has the 5340 area as the pivot still, buyers above there will try to push it toward 5400 strike and below targets 5125 area:
Crude Oil continues to push itself to the $66.55 area resistance where we suspect sellers:
Gold and Silver seeing profit takers late last week but support in gold that would turn the tide is well below at $3205:
Silver has also turned over and $33.00 is now the resistance area short term which would target $29.75 area:
As far as Copper $4.75 to $4.85 is now the target resistance area sell:
Here are all the MEGA8s as we like to call them, all the charts seemingly set up as moving into a major short bias for now. Our pivots are listed in yellow and below we warrant put structures to reap downside moves:
Ok that is it for now, we have all the MTR Subscriber data and trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system.
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