April 3rd Subscriber Data Trackers

Tariffs are beneficial to the consumer!

This morning we saw Non Farm Payrolls (taking a back seat to Tariffs) showed a gain of +228k (yea right) but the unemployment rate was 4.2% exp. 4.1% and we suspect this is the start of a higher trend to come. We also have Jerome Powell speaking today and no doubt his words will be highly scrutinized for any hints at any emergency rate cuts due to the recent market action. We suspect he will not deliver any dovish news to the markets as the battle between the FOMC and the Trump administration will continue.

We continue to see global equities adjust to the new trade wars initiated by the Trump Administrations tariffs. We have warned for a long time about the incoming global realignment of our trade and currency system in general. We want to make a few things abundantly clear to our readers, THE TARIFFS ARE NOT A TAX ON THE US DOMESTIC CONSUMER.

The consumer has the freedom of choice and will opt for the most cost effective goods or service it requires to purchase. This theory that the producers can pass off this tariff as a “tax” on the consumer is patently false.

We do not live in a command economy nor a closed economy, the consumer has the flexibility of choice. So do not listen to any of these academic main stream media types, they are generally doing whatever they can to focus all the blame on markets crashing unto the administration. The reality is the consumer works in a very fundamental way and when you look under the scope of microeconomics, these are the reasons why:

1. Utility Theory – Consumers maximize utility (satisfaction) given their budget constraints.

2. Budget Constraint – The limit on consumption bundles that a consumer can afford.

3. Indifference Curves – Combinations of goods that provide the same level of utility.

4. Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS) – The rate at which a consumer is willing to trade one good for another.

This last one MRS is the flexibility that the consumer enjoys and let’s be honest, the basic consumer needs access to affordable housing, energy, food and healthcare. Those are the four basic needs and requirements. The last one unfortunately for those that can’t afford it, will opt just not to go to the hospital or the doctor and that is real tragedy of unaffordability, but the others, well, let’s be honest,

“the results of the tariffs have greatly IMPROVED the consumers position.”

Here look, first up Crude Oil, any US consumers crying over Crude Oil dropping 15%??? Didn’t think so:

Will the consumer complain about the 5Yr govt bond yields tumbling from 4.62% to 3.52% a drop of 110bp??? Especially those looking to extract some home equity or take out new loans? Well than we need interest rates to continue to tumble in order to do that, here is the 5Y govt. note yield chart:

Ok we know there are a lot of theories out there, but look at the facts I just presented, yes the equity markets are falling, but honestly we talk about it all the time, UNREALIZED GAINS are not GAINS!

The market is down 10% doesn’t mean YOU LOST 10%! It merely means you have forgone the opportunity to monetize your unrealized gains.

If you are greedy and want to stay long and never monetize, well that is your choice, but do not complain when markets revalue themselves if you did not sell and monetize! That is a consumer based choice but do not think for one second that markets are collapsing and you didn’t have a chance to take profits, those are personal preferences and risk based decisions and you are all free to do so.

We often say, in trading and investing there are only 3 choices, Buy, Sell or do Nothing. Don’t complicate it and for those saying the world is collapsing, stocks are tumbling, well show me that on this chart:

Life is about perspective and we hope you realize what it is we are trying to explain to you, that is everything is relative to ones position. This means you are the key holder, you are the decision maker and its up to you to be well informed and not misinformed. We had to listen to months of rhetoric about 1970s inflation resurgence, that the FOMC will have to raise rates to stop it, that the economy is booming…well now what, now these same misinformation pushers will tell you Tariffs are a Tax, why? Because the majority of main stream media doesn’t operate in the real world, they operate in the propaganda world and fortunately for you, you read our work and know better!

Ok we have all the MTR Subscriber data and trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system. We offer you a mindset that you cannot get anywhere else, we offer you data across a multitude of market segments and we track them all very closely to give our subscribers a more in depth vantage point, to incorporate in their own investing and trading processes. You won’t be disappointed!