Berkshire Down Big, Blackstone Sees Record Redemptions
Berkshire's Stock Move an Eye Opener
Good morning everyone, just a few key highlights then the subscriber data. Stay focused and make it a great day and stack your probabilities in your favor!
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund, known as BCRED (Blackstone Private Credit Fund), is experiencing significant redemptions.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Investors requested withdrawals totaling 7.9% of the fund’s shares in Q1 2026 (the current quarter), which is a record high and well above the typical quarterly limit of 5% for this type of non-traded fund.
The fund is valued at around $82 billion.
This led to total payouts of approximately $3.7 billion to redeeming investors.
New commitments/inflows were about $2 billion, resulting in net outflows of roughly $1.7 billion for the quarter.
Blackstone is fulfilling all requests in full (as it has every quarter since inception), by upsizing a tender offer to cover 7% of shares and Blackstone itself (plus employees) stepping in to cover the remaining 0.9% (around $400–700 million injected to stabilize it).
The fund had strong liquidity (over $8 billion at year-end 2025), so no forced asset sales or gating/redemption halts are reported—unlike some peers.
Why This Is Happening? The surge reflects broader unease in the private credit sector:
Write-downs, restructurings, and overhauls at other firms.
A chain reaction from peers like Blue Owl, which suspended redemptions on some non-traded funds.
Growing scrutiny of retail/individual investor access to private credit (BCRED targets wealthy individuals with semi-liquid access), amid fears of liquidity crunches
ifas rates stay high or defaults rise.Some analysts view BCRED as a “barometer” for private credit confidence—its performance (this fund drove ~13% of Blackstone’s revenue last year) signals waning retail enthusiasm.
This next chart highlights the damage:
In other news yesterday a major move in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B and BRK.A) shares dropped significantly.
BRK.B closed at $480.17, down $24.78 or -4.91%
BRK.A similarly fell around -4.89% to close near $720,000
This was one of the largest single-day declines in recent years for the stock, wiping out tens of billions in market cap. Also risking its inclusion in our MEGA9s data tracker, we will monitor it closely as Walmart may replace BRK.B this week and would signify a major market structural shift overall.
The sell-off came right after Berkshire released its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 earnings over the weekend (late February/early March 2026), along with the first shareholder letter from new CEO Greg Abel (who took over from Warren Buffett at the start of 2026).
Key Metrics:
Sharp decline in operating earnings
Heavy hit to insurance operations (Berkshire’s core engine):
-Insurance underwriting profits dropped ~54% in Q4 (to ~$1.56 billion from much higher prior-year levels).
-Geico and other insurance/reinsurance units faced pressure: continued customer retention challenges, pricing competition as more capital floods the market, and rivals cutting car insurance rates.
-Abel’s letter warned of ongoing headwinds in property/casualty (P/C) insurance, with Berkshire planning to write less business to maintain discipline (potentially ceding market share but protecting margins).
At least they are recognizing the facts that we have been highlighting in our letters about the structural weakness of the general base economy!
Looking ahead, the coming decade is likely to be defined by meaningful disruption. The monetary framework that supported the last cycle’s growth is inherently fragile. In this environment, assets such as gold and silver are positioned to respond quickly as markets reprice systemic risk.
The impact will not be evenly distributed. A small group of investors will recognize these signals early and adjust accordingly, while many others will not. The following analysis lays out the key indicators, the most probable scenarios, and the reasoning behind our positioning, connecting these elements to reveal patterns that often go unnoticed and providing a framework for thinking critically about what comes next.
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