Big Tech Earnings Tomorrow, USD Sinking
Subscriber Update Jan27 2026
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Before we get into a bit more on the ongoing US Dollar revaluation, lets first discuss and take a look at tomorrows post closed slew of tech giant earnings coming from Microsoft, META and Tesla.
As far as Microsoft its beaten EPS estimates in the last 9+ quarters. Earnings will be focused upon growth in Azure and AI infrastructure, let’s see if massive CapEx spending is pressuring margins. Analysts as always are full Buy and Strong Buy. Magnelibra’s options analysis is favoring Put Spreads as shown here:
As far as the chart this recent technical bounce to the 38.2% Fib retracement seems textbook, with options markets favoring calls, we would rather take the contrarian approach and focus on the downside risk here to the stock. the 475/465 put spread offers a 1.74x risk reward ratio.
As far as META, we know that advertising remains their demand machine which is boosted by AI tools and user growth across METAs family of apps. Much like MSFT CapEx spending is a continued and growing risk, but analysts are all Bulled up on this one too. So once again we take the contrarian outlook in our options analysis. The breakeven straddles are indicating a 6.80% potential move. We like the put spreads once again here:
The big algos have the same set up in META as we saw in MSFT, as this one is at the 38.2% retrace as well. Above $700 would reignite things to the upside, but a disappointment tomorrow should see the equity take back some of the last 2 weeks pop:
Finally Tesla where Auto deliveries will be the focus and we know margin pressures are a concern along side competition now out of the EU and China. Elon has warned of “rough quarters” with the 2026 outlook uncertain given EV demand and as we said competition. Analysts are more mixed on this one, so let’s look at the options analytics:
Bulls are in control of Tesla above $400 so bias is still higher. Double top formation still possible here, but we will need a close below $400 to confirm this. Also there is decent PUT open interest on the $435 strike so market makers will most likely want to see a push right above there. Wouldn’t be surprised at a muted move of 3% here and not the 5.84% that is implied by the straddle. Overall wouldn’t touch this one:
We aren’t going to comment on the metals today, but rather let’s look at the DXY chart again, first the longer term time frame:
Now the tightened up view, expect a few knife catchers to support the USD here, and perhaps the FOMC no rate move will be just the catalyst to stop the USD from bleeding here:
We also think something is brewing in bond land, especially the shorter rate like the 2Y. We haven’t had a decent double digit basis point move in awhile and it just seems like there is something brewing here as if its winding tighter and tighter:
Maybe the FOMC does cut rates tomorrow, wouldn’t that be something! The front end would really have to play catch up!
Let’s hop over to the QQQ ETF, where the Qs have now hit our weekly resistance target. Earnings by the big tech giants should give one of the camps cannon fodder, so let’s keep an eye out at this current 630 level:
One last tech chart is March Crude, finally a decent break above $61, but will it be able to close the week out above here. Should be buyers here on pull backs to $60 now:
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Magnelibra CTA Futures Market Trend Sentiment (Our proprietary commodity trading advisory futures market sentiment long/neutral/short market flows indicator) The portfolio is made up of the core futures markets we cover and the indicators are for single contracts of the futures market, whether long, short or zero neutral. The P+L is generated via the starting daily position and the ending daily settlement. This is considered a high risk alternative strategy. However most investors should leave a portion of their overall portfolio within a high risk basket. Some of the percentages of the overall portfolio dedicated to high risk should vary from 3% to 18% depending on ones overall time to invest and risk profiles. We added the Sharpe to our data now as well for those quantitative types!
NOTABLE CHANGES -Please note the metals complex is in a bullish bias but our prop indicators for volatility do not warrant a long positioning there thus the “Neutral” bias. Today’s changes as of EOD 1/27:
Move to “1” Long Bias: B6
Move to “0” Neutral Bias:
Move to “-1” Short Bias:
The U.S. Bond Yield Curve (This is our daily graphic displaying the U.S. bond market yield curve changes. We follow the 2 year thru 30 year durations. Please note that bond prices work inversely to yield changes so for instance if bond prices are rising and moving upward, then their yields are falling or moving downward. We also track the relationship between the durations known as US Yield Curve Spreads, when we list it as 2s5, we are comparing the yield differential between the 2 year vs the 5 year with the positive/negative viewed from the higher durations perspective.
The U.S. Treasury yield curves with a steeper move today finally as the 2s were the star performer on the day. The 5Y saw subpar demand as the auction tailed by 0.3bps, bid to cover was lower as well, so not a great auction by any means but not a complete disaster either:
Our base case remains a decisive steepening of the yield curve over the next 12–18 months.
We expect the FOMC will be forced to cut the Fed Funds rate aggressively, bringing it to 2.5% by the end of 2026.
Those cuts will drive long-term yield spreads substantially wider as longer dated maturities will not keep pace relative to short-term rates falling, producing a classic steepening outcome.
Players are still advised to stay long the curve meaning long the shorter durations (2s, 3s or 5s vs the longer end 10s and 30s)
Daily Settlement Sheet (Magnelibra Futures and Cash bond market coverage of the daily settlement prices and dollar value of the contracts given move)- We believe some of you newer traders should concentrate on the dollar value of the moves in the markets we cover so that you gain a better understanding of the real risks involved in trading these contracts.
US Interest Rate Futures and Cash Markets plus Yield and Inter-commodity Spreads:
Equity Index Futures:
Dollar and FX Futures:
Energy Futures:
Metal Futures: (We believe Silver will continue to outpace Gold over the next few years)
German Futures:
The 5, 30 Day and YTD rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers (The last 5 trading days, 22 trading days and YTD net changes)
Magnelibra MEGA9s Portfolio Tracker (This is a synthetic long only portfolio of the Top 9 largest equities by market cap. We started this tracker because we understand Ai dominates the investment landscape and operates in a binary construct. What we mean is that it issues a buy or a sell and will do so in reinforcing mechanisms, meaning if alpha is rising it will add, if it is falling it well sell and remove. We also created a “hedge” for those that want a more active approach to tactically maximizing their long only static portfolio of equities)
MSFT the big winner with a decent 2.2% jump a day before earnings, the hedge this week is short 5 QQQ 630C at $5. The MEGA9s gained $259bn in market cap today with Amazon leading the way and Tesla the big loser on the day -1.8%:
MEGA9s total market cap chart (This chart represents the total market cap of the MEGA9s and lists the 21pMA in pink along with the 50p and 200p MA)
50pMA is being tested here as suspected, it should be a battle here but a break above would target the Long Term Bull Slope once again, but a move back below the 50pMA will bring the sellers right back and force things down again:
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Magnelibra follows a unique mix of The global top 10 Digital Assets and have created an equal weight index using them. The equal weight index rose today by $17bn.
The Magnelibra flagship Founder Digital Strategy- was +1.2% on the day. YTD the Magnelibra Founders Digital Strategy is +5.7% and the top 10 equal weight basket is -1.0% YTD:
We believe our proprietary methodology which our index showcases, will continue to outperform the equal weight top 10 digital basket.
Here is the comparison chart and as you can see the Founders Digital Strategy has continued to outperform the equal weight:
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As far as Bitcoin this week it needs a close above $91,500 for the bulls to reassert momentum and the bears would like to see a move below $80,500:
Here is our BTC/Tether market cap comparison chart. We follow this because we believe Tether is being used to fuel the overall crypto market and we aren’t so sure we believe in its integrity. That is we do not see how Tether can continue to rise in market cap, while the Crypto Markets drop over a Trillion in market cap. Thus we are awaiting a down trend in their market cap to usher in the next leg lower in Bitcoin. Furthermore the Federal Reserve is removing the interest pick up Tether enjoys on its TBills and as the FOMC cuts rates, their net interest margins will collapse:
Strategy Inc / BTC Trading Tracker (Bitcoin vs MSTR equity, Our Strategy Inc. Covered Call Portfolio Tracker, Long 100 shares MSTR and short 1, 3% to 7% out of the money call on Monday’s open each week) For those playing along at home, please note, this long MSTR strategy that incorporates a short covered call hedge is something you cannot pick and choose to do one week to the next! This is a mandatory weekly hedge vs your long holdings. Volatility continues to get stripped out and crushed, buying Bitcoin outright vs MSTR is always the preferred exposure, if you were wondering.
If you want BTC exposure, your better off owning the BTC outright and not some pseudo derivative like MSTR. If you want exposure via MSTR, then we suggest if your account value warrants it, to sell covered calls to hedge your risk and lower your overall risk over time.
The Strategy Inc, covered call strategy (if you are long and own a 100 shares or more, we highly suggest you follow our directional call selling strategy that we provide you here.) This weeks hedge is the $170 call once again. We believe those of you that own MSTR should be actively managing the position to protect against the overall directional risk:
Strategy Inc. BTC metrics as more BTC was purchased this week and more equity was sold to fund it. Their BTC yield thus far this year is a -0.6%. mNAV is 0.995x and their avg. purchase price rose this week to $76,037 as they now own 712,647 BTC and their BTC/share stayed at 0.1839%:
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