Broadcom (AVGO) Continues to Outperform, US Treasury Yields Look Set to Plunge!
Subscriber Data Nov25 2025
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Ok let’s take a look at Broadcom (AVGO) this thing seems quite unstoppable:
From Rollingout.com:
The driving force behind Broadcom’s meteoric rise centers on its deep relationship with Alphabet, the parent company of Google. At the heart of this connection lies Broadcom’s role in designing and manufacturing specialized chips called tensor processing units, or TPUs, for Google. These high-performance processors serve as critical components in Google’s internal AI infrastructure, competing directly with other major players in the chip industry.
Here are some tidbits from Grok:
1. Booming AI Revenue and Hyperscaler Contracts: Broadcom’s AI-related business has become its growth engine, with custom AI accelerators, networking chips (e.g., Tomahawk and Jericho3-AI switches), and optical platforms powering massive data center expansions. Management projects AI semiconductor revenue to hit $5.1 billion in Q4, driven by hyperscale customers like Google (Alphabet), Meta, and ByteDance deploying millions of Broadcom-designed chips by 2027. A recent deal with OpenAI for custom chips further bolsters this, as does collaboration with Apple on its first AI-specific server chip.
2. Alphabet’s Gemini 3 Launch and TPU Momentum: A major catalyst in late November was Alphabet’s release of its Gemini 3 AI model, which leverages Broadcom-co-designed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for superior reasoning, image/video processing, and efficiency compared to rivals like Nvidia’s GPUs. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly praised Gemini 3’s “astonishing leap,” amplifying investor optimism about Broadcom’s role in the AI ecosystem.
Some counter arguments to consider:
-While Broadcom’s forward P/E of ~40x reflects premium valuation amid AI hype, its 28% revenue growth outpaces peers like Nvidia (24%) and AMD (15%), justifying the ascent for long-term holders. Risks include AI spending slowdowns (e.g., Gartner predicts 30% of genAI projects may falter by end-2025) and customer concentration, but current momentum suggests more upside into 2026.
Next let’s look at the US Govt 10Y Chart:
We believe 2026 will be riddled with real economic fundamental issues to contend with and nobody thinks rates can fall because of all this sticky inflation. However we know one thing, the US Treasury cannot afford $1Trn plus interest payments and thus the goal will be to force short term rates down and force a deflationary situation.
Ok that is it for the commentary, which will be light for the next 3 days for the Thanksgiving Holiday!
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***DAILY SUBSCRIBER ONLY SECTION DATA***
Magnelibra CTA Futures Market Trend Sentiment (Our proprietary commodity trading advisory futures market sentiment long/neutral/short market flows indicator) The portfolio is made up of the core futures markets we cover and the indicators are for single contracts of the futures market, whether long, short or zero neutral. The P+L is generated via the starting daily position and the ending daily settlement. This is considered a high risk alternative strategy. However most investors should leave a portion of their overall portfolio within a high risk basket. Some of the percentages of the overall portfolio dedicated to high risk should vary from 3% to 18% depending on ones overall time to invest and risk profiles. We added the Sharpe to our data now as well for those quantitative types!
NOTABLE CHANGES:
Move to “1” Long Bias: ZN, ZF
Move to “0” Neutral Bias: RB, NG (CL was already Neutral)
Move to “-1” Short Bias:
The U.S. Bond Yield Curve (This is our daily graphic displaying the U.S. bond market yield curve changes. We follow the 2 year thru 30 year durations. Please note that bond prices work inversely to yield changes so for instance if bond prices are rising and moving upward, then their yields are falling or moving downward. We also track the relationship between the durations known as US Yield Curve Spreads, when we list it as 2s5, we are comparing the yield differential between the 2 year vs the 5 year with the positive/negative viewed from the higher durations perspective.
Decent curve steepening today:
Daily Settlement Sheet (Magnelibra Futures and Cash bond market coverage of the daily settlement prices and dollar value of the contracts given move)
US Interest Rate Futures and Cash Markets plus Yield and Inter-commodity Spreads:
Equity Index Futures:
Dollar and FX Futures:
Energy Futures:
Metal Futures:
German Futures:
The 5 & 30 Day rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers (The last 5 trading days and 22 trading days net changes)
Magnelibra MEGA9s Portfolio Tracker (This is a synthetic long only portfolio of the Top 9 largest equities by market cap. We started this tracker because we understand Ai dominates the investment landscape and operates in a binary construct. What we mean is that it issues a buy or a sell and will do so in reinforcing mechanisms, meaning if alpha is rising it will add, if it is falling it well sell and remove. We also created a “hedge” for those that want a more active approach to tactically maximizing their long only static portfolio of equities)
We saw the top hedge fund returns this year, barely up 20%, if you guys just followed the MEGA9s and our hedged program, well you would be beating every single hedge fund this year:
MEGA9s total market cap chart (This chart represents the total market cap of the MEGA9s and lists the 21pMA in pink along with the 50p and 200p MA)
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The Magnelibra Founders Digital Strategy, with a big day +9.42% vs the Top 10 equal weight which is down -3.53%. The top 10 dropped nearly $40Bn in market cap back today. As always it is our goal to beat the equal weight index. We want you guys to participate so sign onto the Founders Strategy, we know you will not be disappointed and once you realize what it is we are trying to create for all of you, well we are certain you will be absolutely surprised and amazed and you will be bragging to all your friends and most certainly way ahead of everyone else!
Here is the comparison chart:
As far as Bitcoin, the 0.382% fib is support here backed up by 79500:
Ultimately we suspect Bitcoin will test and eventually reverse the decline at $39345, that is our ultimate rebuy area for a prolonged downturn and most likely will result with major liquidations from all the BTC treasury companies and pension funds who have mistakenly bought in up here.
Here is our BTC/Tether market cap comparison chart which continues to see the ratio fall:
Strategy Inc / BTC Trading Tracker (Bitcoin vs MSTR equity, Our Strategy Inc. Covered Call Portfolio Tracker, Long 100 shares MSTR and short 1, 3% to 7% out of the money call on Monday’s open each week) For those playing along at home, please note, this long MSTR strategy that incorporates a short covered call hedge is something you cannot pick and choose to do one week to the next! This is a mandatory weekly hedge vs your long holdings. Volatility continues to get stripped out and crushed, buying Bitcoin outright vs MSTR is always the preferred exposure, if you were wondering.
If you want BTC exposure, your better off owning the BTC outright and not some pseudo derivative like MSTR. If you want exposure via MSTR, then we suggest if your account value warrants it, to sell covered calls to hedge your risk and lower your overall risk over time.
The Strategy Inc, covered call strat will not sell calls this week, this is a technical decision and we suspect we may see a short term rally here and its not optimal to hedge given the current setup:
Strategy Inc holds 649,870 BTC at an avg price of $74,433 and the premium NAV at 1.03 is at a critical level:
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