CPI Continues to Fall, Yen?
MEGA8s Rolling Over
The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected), YoY up to 3.2% (from 3.0% in June) but below the 3.3% that was expected. We also saw the rent component continue to slide, we know its just a matter of time. The equities initially took it as a positive but by NY open, it was all sellers:
We highlighted that 15442 area as it seems to be the Bull/Bear line for us now and saw a massive rejection today putting sellers in continued control, meaning any chance to sell around the 15350/15400 area has its known stop out point and market participants are looking for lower prices ahead as long as we trade below this area.
The same thing happened to the Ten Year Note futures, initial move up was blasted and the market continues to follow the downward path that has been in place since May:
We also have the Yen on our minds here as it is now in BOJ intervention territory, btw it is now down 15% off the highs in January:
As far as today’s settlements, you can see the US Interest Rates markets continues to be under assault as were most of the markets today, this is becoming a reoccurring theme:
As far as our GFBP futures sentiment tracker, gave back some today, but will look to continue with our positioning for now, if the US treasuries are going to continue to dump, so too should the Nasdaq, equities in general and FX:
The Magnelibra MEGA8s continues to waffle around as well and thus we added another option call sale to continue our bearish hedge against these high flyers. Speaking of Tesla is getting close to getting kicked out by Visa…will be interesting to see, might have to make it the MEGA9s :
Here is a nice little graphic showing you the Net change from the highs vs current prices. Apple, Microsoft and Tesla have the widest gaps from the % change from hi to current % change since May 10th, when we started really keeping track of this complex:
Here is a snapshot of the current market cap vs 2023 market cap highs since May 10th 2023:
Apples down $291 Billion from its highs, Microsoft is down $272 Billion, Tesla is down $153 Billion and Nvidia down $126 Billion from their recent market cap highs. In fact the total market cap of the group continues to roll over with the Vwap acting as resistance now and clearly in a downward trajectory:
We also so the bond auction 30Y paper today it was a small 1.4bp tail adding to the long end pressure, and the first > 4% coupon that we have seen in quite sometime! Well PPI tomorrow, so be aware of continued volatility! Please like share and subscribe, we posted this one as a no paywall just to showcase our work in hopes of continuing to grow our subscriber base. Do your part and share and support our work. As we noted, we highly doubt $1.67 a day for the work that we do isn’t a big deal for many, considering the markets we cover, the way we highlight and convey data, we expect more than a coffee a day, but we aren’t greedy!
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