Thank you guys for joining me tonight and welcome to Episode 5 of Season 2 brought to you by Magnelibra Trading & Research. This episode is entitled “CPI Fuels Equity and Bond Market Rallies”
Quick Disclaimer: The following podcast is for educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and may not be appropriate for all listeners.
Alright everyone we wanted to get this one out tonight because the recent market turnaround came in fast and furious today and will undoubtedly be testing the bears overall resolve here as the markets seemed to have liked the weaker core CPI print which came in at 3.2% down a tenth from last month. We highlighted on the 13th about the Nasdaq hitting that 21pVWMA down near 20600 on the weekly and it did an absolute about face rallying nearly 800 points off that area. The big resistance now is 21,600 so we are about 200 points away so we will see how the market reacts the next 2 days:
The Russell2k Index is back above our 2221 bear/bull line and flanked by the VWMAs it seems:
Another chart we want to highlight is RBOB, technically it looks very strong and ready for a boost higher, we aren’t sure what the real drivers of this are, but the last 4 weeks have had solid buying emerge:
Another chart we like is Silver, where the bulls have regained the important $31 level and the bulls are supported here by the 50p VWMA and the 21p now has been breached to the upside again as well, so this weeks close should be very telling:
Ok lets go with the settlement page for today with the Nasdaq the big contract dollar winner today while the dollar index was the loser of the group but just marginally:
Here are the rolling changes:
When we look at the bond market today, we can see that yields plunged across the board with the 5Y sector leading the way dropping 14.3bp on a fairly parallel shift down in yields across the board:
As far as the MCA CTA Market Sentiment Tracker there were a bunch of longs added at the end of today, with ES, NQ, YM, QR and SI all moving to a 1 or long:
As far as the MEGA8s, Tesla was the big winner today +8% and as a group added $565 Billion. The hedges are underwater a bit but as the point of the hedges they are to add value if markets move to the downside and are expected to lose out on the upside because the MEGA8s is a proxy long, a basket of the top market cap stocks. You guys can create your own synthetic portfolios and hedge in your own fashion, but we are just showing you one way to do it:
As far as the market cap total chart we can see the 50pMA held for now but we are right back at the 21pMA, let’s see if we can press as a group above this line or if we pause here:
Ok let’s look at the MicroStrategy Tracker:
Ok we leave you with this data chart that we poached off of Zhedge, it quantifies the value of the LA fires. This amount is just massive and we aren’t sure of the repercussions to the overall economy there yet, but this will take years to filter out, you don’t fix $250-275Bn overnight. The personal damage, the uncertainty, the lives disrupted, yea its a high priced area, but that doesn’t change the nature of the devastation, we are all human and we all bear the emotional burden when things like this occur:
Ok guys thank you for joining me tonight, we hope you have a great rest of your evening and we will be back with more tomorrow! If you can support our work, please do, if you can’t, please share and or give it a like, that will suffice. We have new payment tiers and we believe these are set at a fair price that reflects the data and our work accurately.
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