Curves Continue to Pancake Nasdaq Weaker?

Happy Fathers Day to all our dads out there. A strong family formation begins with a strong fathers influence that transcends time and allows for children to grow up with a model influence. So here is to all the fathers out there today!

Let’s take a look at the US treasury yield curve first which continues to play catch up to the Fed Funds higher for longer. In particular look at the massive drubbing the 2s30 has undergone since 5/4, down a whopping -87.1 bp:

With the CME Fed Watch Tool indicating a 72% chance of a 25bp hike at the July 26th meeting, no wonder the 2s have been under pressure…we are in the pause camp and do not think the FOMC will raise rates any further given the fact that they are already 125bp above the current CPI readings. However the market is what it is as shown here:

CME Fed Watch Tool

Here is where the US Treasury issues we follow settled out on Friday:

As far as the other markets it was amazing to see the options market players get the Nasdaq futures below 15300 on a close on Friday after reaching an intraday high up at 15475.50. We did not like that close on Friday in the Nasdaq, it had the scent of real selling in the form of profit takers plus fresh shorts being set at 15410 and 15385: