Election Day!
Plus Settles & Global Futures Benchmark Program Tracker
Alright, finally the long awaited election day is here so get out there and vote! We have warned our readers of the volatility that has led up to this point and the potential for further uncertainty given a contested election.
However, our baseline scenario continues to point to a Republican victory as we would be hard pressed to believe that Trump hasn’t warranted re-election given the current status of equity and employment after the lockdowns due to Covid19. Yes we know main stream narrative continues to push their polls, just like they did in 2016 where on Election day they had HRC a 98% chance winner. Well that #fail is being doubled down again this time around with Biden currently ahead in the polls with RealClear Politics at 50-46.
This isn’t the 98% that HRC had and thus we would have to believe even the Biden camp is very worried, but the polls don’t really giving us any real direction just more narrative spin out of the full left leaning media camps.
One would have to be a blind fool not to acknowledge the stark contrasts between Biden events (what events) and Trump events, so let’s not kid ourselves. Thus the baseline Magnelibra Econemotions sees a resounding Trump victory (both popular and electoral) by very big margins, most likely 5 to 10 million more popular votes. Republicans will continue to own the Senate and they will also gain ground in the House.
This isn’t about us being pro Republican anti Democrat, which we certainly are not, we are pro constitution and we call them how we see them on the ground, not what someone want’s us to believe. We also think Wall Street believes Trump will win as the indexes are higher across the board (+2%) and if its one thing Wall Street and Washington DC both like, its “status quo.” Here are the indexes currently (Tradingview.com data):
Alright well let’s look at where things were leading up to today with yesterday’s settlements:
The US Dollar has been strong and we will continue to push this direction as long as the Dollar Index stays above 93-00. The equities have had a good value led bounce as the Tech sector has been the laggard, but we suspect that to be a battle as Tech is certainly the leader in the new economy but it has come so far especially vs the other indexes as our proprietary charts show here:
Here is the Nasdaq vs the SP500 which continues to breakdown:
Here is the 2 x Russell2k Index vs the Nasdaq and the 50dMA gave us the breakout and trend reversal confirmation, however only above the -$90k mark would truly say the end of the tech outperformance is at hand, but we are close, expect a battle here:
Our last index comparison is the SP500 vs the Russell2k Index which has also broken down out of trend channel supports:
Moving to Fixed Income, we have noticed that the Ultra-Long end of the US Yield Curve has begun to outperform the 30Y sector (BOB) in a bear flattening as denoted in the gray line in this chart, will this drag the other curves down with it?
Alright and for our readers that are not Founding Subscribers, here is a glimpse of Magnelibra’s Global Futures Benchmark Program Positions Tracker (GFBP), our proxy to our CTA managed program. This Tracker gives our readers a good glimpse into dynamic positioning based off Magnelibra’s proprietary CTA program for managed accounts. This newsletter tracker can be used as a guidepost to our sentiments and we even track it on a rolling daily P+L basis based off daily prior position and end of day settlements. Any changes to positioning are duly noted and are generally considered swapped at market on close to stay consistent with the newsletter P+L generation.
Our goal is to garner the attention of a big outfit willing to take a stake in what we built so that we can take it to the next level. Here is the current positioning as denoted by the GFBP Positions Tracker:
We know Wizards author Jack Schwager has a new book out entitled “Unknown Market Wizards” and we can’t wait to read it, but we couldn’t help but comment on LinkedIn to a recent post about this book here is what we said:
So yes, we hope Jack is going to shed some light on this unknown talent and we are excited to read it!
Finally we wanted to leave you with these charts to ponder, the first is Fannie Mae’s distributions (Dividend Payments) to the US Treasury, yeah you remember that conservatorship??? We certainly do and we know the US Treasury isn’t about to give up this CASH COW anytime soon as payment have reached an epic $181.4 Billion or a profit so far of $61.6 Billion!
Bitcoin bonus chart, Lyn Alden shared this PlanB chart on Twitter Bitcoin Halving/Pricing chart (So many continue to discount the power of math):
By the way, the Unchained Podcast by Laura shin is a must listen as this week she has on Lyn Alden and Meltem Demirors if you haven’t seen it, here is the link, Unchained Podcast
Alright that is it, get out there and vote, we hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and a cohesive society to exist moving forward. We do feel that a lot is going on behind the scenes and that the whole world is watching our election. We believe that there are forces out there trying to undermine democracy, freedom and natural law and those are pillars of civil society that we can never take for granted. This has nothing to do with Red, Blue, Black, White or any other divisional polarization, this has to do with the cultivation of sustainable organic living and life and an environment that we all can thrive in. Get out there and vote, it is your right, it is your duty! Stay safe everyone and we hope you continue to support and share our work here.
Please share our work and subscribe if you haven’t already, we have a free tier, a 2 latte a month style and a Founders which has access to our Global Futures Benchmark Program positions tracker daily. We hope you enjoy our work and we hope you continue to support us.
-Magnelibra Econemotions
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on neither commodity futures. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from the author Michael Agne owner of Magnelibra Capital Advisors. All rights are reserved. We will never claim that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, we make no warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.