Federal Reserve Assets Uptick
Dow chart set up could signal downturn
Given the reflation in central bank balance sheet, we tend to lean to the long side across the majority of our view points. The old “Don’t Fight The FED!” However given the recent run up straight off the Covid lows, we have been monitoring the Federal Reserves H4 each Thursday for any indication of further balance sheet expansion. Today we saw the central bank assets gain $37.9 Billion to $6.95 Trillion, still a tad under its highs but two important points are noted in our chart here:
Central Bank Liquidity Swaps continue to fall down another $24.2 Billion to $154.8 Billion down nearly $300 billion off the highs.
QE continues with US Treasury and MBS purchases totaling nearly $60 billion
Our paying subscribers received this chart earlier in our subscriber only letter and we are sharing with everyone here. This Dow chart is what’s giving the GFBP positions tracker some issues with the Hedged Long, here take a look at what we are seeing:
Failure here will be catastrophic to the bulls and a trade back into our channel will ensue and put the 26221 level back in site. We can’t say this will occur but rather the technical picture needs a decent close tomorrow to avoid damage. Anyway value area’s for longs are below and we will not chase here.
As far as the overall markets we follow here is what stood out today:
US bonds stronger led by the Ultra as curve flattens
Equities, Currencies, Energies and Metals all weaker across the board
Strange right? What do they know? Bonds higher, everything else lower?Maybe just some profit taking, or maybe something is brewing?
If you are a high net worth QEP and or a more astute investor we invite you to join us in subscribing to our premium Founders Subscription to get full access to our real time daily updates to our Global Futures Benchmark Program Positions Tracker as well as access to our daily settlement page which is instrumental in tracking the over 35 markets that we follow in both the futures and US Treasury cash markets. We would also like to invite investors and traders that want to hone their craft or gain a more in depth analysis of how Magnelibra formulates its trading program and the composition of its futures program. Founders Subscribers get access to an open forum where Mr. Agne opens up his knowledge for direct trading questions in a more mentor-ship style which he feels is missing in today’s algorithmic trading world.
So subscribe now and or share our work with others that you may think will benefit from our unique newsletter:
-Magnelibra Econemotions
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on neither commodity futures. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from the author Michael Agne owner of Magnelibra Capital Advisors. All rights are reserved. We will never claim that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, we make no warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.