FOMC Dust Settling, is Tether a BTC Risk?

MSTR/Options strategy now breakeven

Alright guys, just a quick update here today, let’s take a look at the March Nasdaq futures where right now they are +1.9% at 21785, for now they are above our weekly pivot of 21608, which isn’t surprising. However this sets up the showdown for next weeks shortened trading and now you guys know the level to watch:

As far as the SP500 well its right on are line and 6042 will be key going into next week:

Another important chart we are watching is Bitcoin, its below our $97k line in the sand and we settle our pricing each day at 3pm so let’s see how this one shakes out. We are currently researching the relationship that Tether has and the notable increase in Tether supply and its relationship to Bitcoin. We feel many are overlooking this massive under the hood risk known as Tether, but not us, we will continue to look deep to see exactly what this scheme is all about and how it will effect Bitcoin in 2025. We aren’t sure why Cantor Fitzgerald and Howard Lutnick are so tied to this thing, other than the fact that they may be interested in their US Treasuries for business reasons, but there is a lot to digest before we make any real determination. For now we are avid skeptics of Tether and for good reason, $140Bn in market cap, has us wondering where they are hiding all that collateral! Anyway here is BTC:

Here is the current leveraged look at total market cap of Bitcoin to Tether, Bitcoin is now a hefty 15.2x which is a stones throw away from the Nov 2021 high:

What happened to Bitcoin the last time the ratio was at this level back in Nov 2021 you might ask? Well Bitcoin went on to lose some 77%, falling from a high of $69,000 to a low of $15,460:

Now we aren’t saying correlation is causation or that there is an analog here, rather our job is to find pertinent data that we think fits, and this Tether printing fits!

As far as out MicroStrategy/Options Tracker, the recent equity decline has pushed the alpha into negative territory, it will be interesting to see how many continue to stick with this strategy:

Ok let’s look at the MEGA8s where this weeks hedge will close out at full premium realized value and we will target most likely a strike next week near 530:

As far as the settlements from yesterday, silver was the big loser:

The Dollar is the weekly star stand out and the R2k and Silver the big losers, interesting to note that Bitcoin is now down on the 30day rolling change:

Here is the MCA Markets Sentiment and Trend Indicators, we added the “yesterday” column for comparison so you guys can see if there were any changes:

Ok that is it for now guys, seems like damage was done and the writing is on the wall, maybe the FOMC means business with the strong dollar, which is punishing all the other countries out there. Combine this with the new DOGE USA, well let’s just say this may be something we have not witnessed in quite some time. There is a lot going on and there is a lot to decipher, so we hope you stay the course with us throughout. Please subscribe if you can to support our daily work and if not at least share our work to as many as you can, we greatly appreciate it! Till next time…Cheers

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