FOMC Holds Rates Steady but Will Big Tech Earnings Force the Next Leg Higher?
Subscriber Update Jan28 2026
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Today saw the FOMC decide to hold interest rates (Federal Funds Rate) steady at the target range of 3.5%–3.75%. This marks the first pause in rate adjustments since July 2025, following three consecutive quarter-point cuts last year. The decision passed on a 10-2 vote, with Governors Stephen Miran (Obviously vying for Trumps support as next chair) and Christopher Waller dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut.
Key highlights from the statement today concluded that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, job gains remaining low, but the unemployment rate showing some signs of stabilization and inflation is remaining slightly elevated.
Some interpreted the language as leaning hawkish and as we suspected in yesterday’s note that a pause would most likely lead to a firmer US Dollar, which was the case.
As we noted in our options analysis yesterday we had big tech earnings from Microsoft, META and Tesla after the close. Lets start with MSFT and we knew concerns on slower growth and higher Ai spending could potentially hurt MSFT and that does seem to be the case. Despite beating the top and bottom line estimates the stock is lower in after hours down over 6%:
META posting solid numbers with revenue +24% YoY with solid guidance for Q12026 all of this despite 2026 Capex ranging from $115-$135Bn (Ai focused spending) investors in the post market are seeing META surge higher:
Tesla was a mixed bag as they beat the EPS estimates by $.05 but revenue was a miss. Lower vehicle deliveries hampered things as the auto segment fell 11%. As we noted in our options analysis yesterday there was some chunky open interest in the $435 calls and we would suspect market makers would love to see this thing trade above there, well in after hours trade Tesla is +1.9% trading $439.76:
Tomorrow after the close will see Apple earnings. So let’s take a look at the options analysis which are indicating a 3.94% move tomorrow given the $10.10 cost to buy the $257.50 straddle:
As far as the chart, Apple is sitting right atop our Bull/Bear pivot level of $260, this weeks close is important here, bulls would love to see a weekly close above this level. Bears, well they one the first battle by rejecting the 21p Weekly MA and this $260 level. You can see our long term support and resistance channels in magenta:
Honestly this earnings report for Apple may not see much movement, so it wouldn’t surprise us to trade up to $260 and fail again.
As far as the futures markets, obviously the Nasdaq March futures are in focus and we talked about the resistance sitting up at 26,450 so lets see if we can get a real test there and rejection tomorrow into Friday:
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