FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged

Lowers Redemption Cap on US Treasuries to $5Bn from $25Bn

FOMC kept the Fed Funds rate unchanged and we highlight this remark from the FOMC Statement, link to statement, FOMC Statement 3/19/25

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. Federal Reserve 3/19/25

This is an important statement which opens the door to the future rate cuts and differs from the January statement which read as,

The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly “in balance”. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Federal Reserve 1/29/25

So its apparent that the word “increased” should be emphasized here in today’s statement in regards to the uncertainty of the economic outlook.

As far as the markets reaction the SP500 it obviously liked the statement and the June contract ran from the 5690 area up to our first real daily resistance point at 5730. We like this range of the 5555 to 5730 on the daily and continue to expect it to anchor the upper and lower bands. The risk is still higher on this consolidative move as the VWMAs above at 5805 and 5920 will define the true risk on the upside and moving lower over time here:

As far as the Nasdaq Futures target is still the 20216 area:

In bond land, the US Govt 10Y is -3.5bp and back into our trend channel:

Ok we will bring more info later, but that is it for now.

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