FOMC Week

We expect 25bp hike, but should go 50bp

The FOMC meeting is this week and the market expectations are for a garden variety 25bps hike. Although we view this as a major mistake on the FEDs part because we don’t believe the Ukraine/Russian conflict should intervene in the overall inflation issue that the FED is meagerly trying combating. In fact as you can see from this CME watch tool, the market a month ago was split between the 25bp/50bp call:

Credit: CME Group Fed Watch Tool