GFBP Defensive & June Q2 Window Dressing
Copper the star June Performer!
As we noted, the month end saw a decent grinding bid till the close where equities shot up to end the day on or near their highs. In today’s report we will give you our month end settles showing you the big winners and losers as well as a few charts of the things we are watching.
The equity grind up continues to be led by the tech heavy Nasdaq which ended the month +6.3% settling in at 10147.25 +600.25 points for the month of June and +17.1% YTD.
The SP500 was +59 points for the month, settling at 3090.25 and still down -1.52% YTD. Copper was the star performer on the month +12.68% as the Sept. contract closed at 2.7285 +.3070 for the month. RBOB and Crude rounded out the top 3 both up 10.63% and 9.82% respectively, Economic slow down be damned! OK here are the monthly settlements:
Here we go over a few of the charts, first up the SP500 which is at a crossroads, it broke our 3064, broke 3084 and needs a daily close above this trend line to usher in a bull run to the .618 fib at 3113 which is currently our target breakout and fail point:
Nasdaq continues to be boxed in, building a base no doubt, sooner or later we will get the move out of here, do we get the pop and drop? Or the one way freight train to NATH (New all time highs):
As we noted, Oil has been on a tear and we fell that $46 is beckoning as trend line support continues to back it up:
With all the recent talk of limited delivery out of Comex and even worse all the questionable quality of available metal supply in general, we can’t help but think the paper selling banks are going to have a hard time suppressing metals for the foreseeable future. Silver’s up trend continues to ramp up the bull case, the model is short this vs gold but hedges may be coming:
The GFBP’s Positions Tracker has been in a defensive Hedged Short posture for a few weeks now. The short NQ, Silver, RBOB has thwarted its hedged success as it has led to an under performance out of the other longs vs these shorts. The model continues to play defensive but we are short leashed on our indicators here as some of our extension parameters are flashing and when that happens a move to all flat becomes increasingly likely. So we will keep readers informed. Right now its leaning on a long call Silver hedge, a long call NQ hedge and so be on the look out for changes. Here is the end of month positions tracker, it had a decent first half of June, but the last 2 weeks have been abysmal. The stats on June ended up being great however as it still posted a +5.32% based upon daily tracked and mark to market end of day positioning:
July is here and we hope you are able to enjoy some normal summer activity, we are confident this Covid will continue to post falling death rates even amidst the increase in cases as we test. We want to see increased testing, but we also want to see the death rates fall commensurately! The markets are acting like the worst is behind us and maybe it is. If it is, then the equities will continue to skyrocket as all that high powered QE will be levered to the nth degree and even if things don’t reopen as quick as many want, it seems the equities just don’t care. It’s all about the MV = PQ and when you print $100 bln a month, when you buy ETFs, Corporate Bonds and everything else that isn’t nailed down, well NOMINAL ASSET PRICES tend to rise!
We hope you continue to spread the word on our work here with your friends and colleagues, remember, knowledge is key and it is the absolute goal of Magnelibra Econemotions is to always put you ahead of the pack. When your family, friends and neighbors ask, how you know all this stuff, we hope you point them in our direction. We hope you consider contributing to our work and joining as a monthly subscriber and for the professional traders and investors, join our Founding Subscription because the position tracker is a uniquely proprietary driven model designed as a global macro market analytic that we believe can help to advance your trading and investing game.
-Econemotions
DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on neither commodity futures. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from the author Michael Agne owner of Magnelibra Capital Advisors. All rights are reserved. We will never claim that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, we make no warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.