GFBP Position Tracker Update 6/12/2020
Equities Topping Pattern Still In Play
The Global Futures Benchmark Program position tracker continues on within a Hedged Short defensive position. Our counter trend indicators continue to point us into a defensive posture and equities despite a small bounce on Friday are not out of the woods just yet.
As we have noted the over-extension and major run up from the SP 2170 area seems to be in a bit of an exhaustive state. We know QE is the overall driving powerful force, yet we also know that a lot of optimism is already backed in. We also know the US Treasury continues to use the Federal Reserve as the SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) and all this debt does come with some future risk. We know Powell & Co. don’t think so, but as many of our long time readers know, debt, especially exponential growth of said debt is highly DEFLATIONARY.
Deflation limits the multiplier effect of all this QE and it also wreaks havoc on an economy that desperately needs organic savings growth and not growth, solely reliant upon interest rate arbing institutions who disregard any if not all traditional and fundamental economics.
We have often talked about the inverse square law and we truly believe this is going to over rule the central banks potency in the months and years to come. Meaning more and more debt will be met with lessor and lessor incremental economic growth. This makes the investing climate one that will continue to exhibit massive one way flows, up up and up and down down down.
Here is Friday’s end of day position sentiment where you will notice a roll in the equities to September Futures. We will continue to keep a rolling total of that performance as it pertains to our end of day position and the profit/loss will be determined by the end of day settlement price for that commodity.
Please note this is not the actual position of any of Magnelibra Capital Advisors managed accounts, but rather the proprietary sentiment of the program developed by MCA. The GFBP Position Tracker will be considered initiated upon market on close pricing settlement for each specific instrument for tracking purposes:
The settlements to the markets we follow are below. Friday saw the bonds lose a bit of ground as the equity markets recovered some of Thursday’s losses. The dollar was stronger across the board and the metals lost a bit as well. The front end of the bond curve continues to be well anchored and we would expect a bear steepen-er on any yield rise:
We don’t think the selling in equity land is over with, in fact a lot of complacency and leverage is most likely what got us here and that is generally shed in the most expedient of fashion. So the model continues to posture in the defensive Hedged Short and we will continue to update any changes within the structure.
We hope you consider to join as a founding member to have continued access, as we are only giving this away for a limited time offer. We hope it helps you to analyze markets that we follow and how we position our Cross Sector Asset Allocation Global Futures Benchmark Program.
Our Founding Membership GFBP is something we created in order to enhance the subscriber experience in regards to having access to some of the proprietary information that Magnelibra Capital Advisors utilizes in order to create an alternative strategy using futures and options. This daily tracker is to demonstrate how a systematic/discretionary program positions itself within the various asset classes that Magnelibra operates within.
We hope that this educates and enhances all types of investors in regards to learning more about the financial markets, how we navigate them and what our proprietary indicators are telling us in regards to positions sentiment. The model that is being conveyed is for informational purposes only and we hope you engage us with any questions and we hope that it offers you a way to view how we track our target markets and even how we track performance.
Magnelibra Capital Advisors (MCA) is a National Futures Association registered Commodity Trading Advisor. If you have any interest in learning more you can visit our website at www.magnelibra.com to learn more about potentially opening up a separately managed futures account.
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DISCLAIMER: For educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on neither commodity futures. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from the author Michael Agne owner of Magnelibra Capital Advisors. All rights are reserved. We will never claim that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, we make no warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.