Goldman Lowers US Q4 GDP Forecast

Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius is lowering his consumer spending expectations for the remaining months of this year, "but not dramatically" penciling in a deceleration in consumption growth to 0-½% in September and October and -½% in November and December, "by which point the boost from the last round of extra unemployment benefits is likely to have faded."

This downgrade to Goldman's consumption forecast results in a downgrade to the bank's GDP growth forecast to 3% on a quarterly annualized basis, from 6%previously:

"We are lowering our Q4 GDP growth forecast from 6% to 3% on a quarterly annualized basis.  This leaves more room for catch-up later, and we have therefore raised our 2021Q2-Q4 growth forecasts as a partial offset.  Our new forecasts imply full-year growth of -3.5% in 2020 and +5.8% in 2021 (or -2.5% in2020 and +5.5% in 2021 on a Q4/Q4 basis)." (Zhedge)