Govt Shutdown Continues Whose at Risk? PLTR and HIMS on Tap

Subscriber Data Oct31 2025 see sentiment changes

With the US Govt shut down in its what, 34th day or so, we wanted to at least see who may be impacted the most if the monetary spigot of America was shut down. The Trump administration has frozen or rescinded billions in foreign aid. These include a broad freeze on new obligations and disbursements initiated in January 2025 via executive order, followed by congressional rescissions in July 2025.

We will come back to the foreign add, but we wanted to first touch upon SNAP, the government program called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Formerly known as “food stamps”)

A few pointers on SNAP:

• Federal anti-hunger program run by the USDA.

• Gives low-income Americans monthly money on an EBT card (looks like a debit card) to buy groceries.

• Average benefit: $190 per person / $580 per family of 4 (2025 levels).

• 42 million people use it, 1 in 8 Americans, including 18 million kids.

No new funding bill = SNAP ran dry on Nov 1. Some federal judges have intervened,

• Rhode Island judge: “Pay SNAP NOW using the $5.25 billion contingency pot.”

• Massachusetts judge: “You MUST use contingency + any import-fee cash to keep benefits flowing.”

  Both gave the Trump admin until today (Mon Nov 3) to say: “Will you pay partial benefits (60–70%) or full ($8 billion)?”

  The US Treasury Secretary on CNN yesterday - “President Trump wants to pay, but we need the courts to spell out the legal path. Money could hit EBT cards by Wednesday if we move fast.”

For those on the SNAP program here is what they can expect:

1. No new November money yet -but any leftover October balance is still spendable.

2. Partial payment (60–70%) is the base case -expect $110–$130 per person instead of $190 average.

3. Full retroactive top-up once shutdown ends (experts say 95% chance by Thanksgiving).

4. You can still apply / recertify -states are processing paperwork so benefits auto-load the second cash arrives.

When Will It End?

• Senate gavels in at 3 PM EST today.

• Betting markets (Polymarket): 68% chance of a deal by Nov 7, 92% by Nov 14.

• If no deal, judges say USDA must keep paying monthly from contingency + import fees until Congress acts.

As we noted initially, in regards to foreign aid, the shutdown has also halted further processing and release of appropriated funds by agencies like USAID and the State Department, leading to operational shutdowns, staff firings, and program pauses worldwide. Humanitarian aid has been somewhat spared, but development and economic assistance programs are heavily affected.

We have been taught through the years to always follow the money and when its cut off, we would expect those beholden to cry the loudest. Now don’t get us wrong, we are not in any way shape or form indicating that this is a good thing. We know real lives are affected, that really people with real needs are affected and we can’t discount that. So please we are just trying to give you a small snippet of what or who may be impacted without bias.

Below is a list of key foreign aid categories and programs unable to disburse funds due to the combined freeze, rescissions, and shutdown constraints (Dollar amounts are Estimated impact):

1. General U.S. International Assistance (Rescission), $4.9 billion Pocket rescission announced in October 2025; affects clean water, food security, and child protection programs in low-income countries.

2. Foreign Aid Overall (July Rescissions Act), $9 billion includes cuts to public broadcasting and foreign assistance; Supreme Court stay in September 2025 allowed withholding of congressionally appropriated funds.

3. USAID Development Assistance (full freeze) -Executive order paused all new disbursements to foreign governments, NGOs, and contractors pending 90-day reviews.

4. Humanitarian Assistance $1.3 billion, cut in July rescissions, affects emergency food, health, and disaster response in crisis zones like Ukraine and Latin America.

5. Ukraine Civilian Support (State Department), no exemptions from freeze includes salary support for Ukrainian government operations amid the war, straining bilateral trade and security.

6. Global Health Funding $300 million annually, cut in appropriations bill stalled by shutdown; impacts vaccine deployment in poor countries; no commitment to Global Fund for AIDS, TB, and Malaria.

7. UN Programs, thousands affected, largest restructuring in history, funds lost or reformed, hitting peacebuilding, economic opportunity, and anti-instability efforts.

Now we know the Trump administration is working on eliminating waste and we heard Elon Musk on Joe Rogan this weekend talk about DOGE and the work being done there still. Perhaps this shutdown is a quick test of resolve to see how the govt can function and where improvements perhaps need to be made will be uncovered. Who really knows when it comes to these thing. We suspect that these disruptions stem from the shutdown’s halt on agency operations and the administration’s broader efficiency reviews via the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Which Musk confirmed is still operational. However, experts warn of long-term damage to U.S. foreign policy and economic ties, even if funds resume post-shutdown.

Negotiations remain stalled over ACA subsidies and rescissions, but hopefully this gets resolved. One benefit we noticed was that the US Treasury TGA has swelled to nearly $1Trn currently at $957.99Bn:

Ok what else, we have Palantir earnings after the close, we know this company is high on the governments list as the must watch go to for all things security. The Denver based Ai security company is the modern day version of the 2002 movie “Minority Report.” Palantir creates sophisticated dashboards utilizing Ai predictive models harnessing oceans of digital data to make automated decisions.

We are quite sure everyone has a Palantir digital twin by now. Palantir’s market cap is a staggering $485Bn, which is bigger than Lockheed, Boeing, RTX, Northrop combined.

When we look at the chart, a case can be made from a run to $300 or a drop to $150. The only question is what do you believe in, are you bullish or bearish? As far as the options markets, the breakeven straddle for Friday’s expiration using the $205 strike is trading $20.50, so a hefty 10% move with heavy call interest from $205 to $230. On the put side there’s some chunky interest down at $180. Buying the straddle probably makes sense here because a large move could push this easily past 10%. See the chart below the green boxes indicate the level the straddle becomes breakeven on the upside and downside, a move above $225 or below $185:

Also keep an eye on HIMS, with the GLP-1 cliff already behind them, maybe the worst of the price action is in:

HIMS is like PLTR, could go either way, maybe the straddle here is worth a look also, its trading at $6.50 for an expected move of 14% yes vol is high here but honestly a move well above $52 or below $38 isn’t out of the ordinary here.

Before we get to the subscriber only section, we wanted to touch upon two charts, the US Dollar and the QQQ ETF:

The US Dollar is about to break out to the upside here and we suspect this theme bodes well for dollar based risk assets, so keep an eye here:

As far as the QQQ ETF its in rip your face off mode, meaning, don’t fade me:

Ok that is all we will say, we have all the subscriber data up next, we believe you should think about supporting our work here. At the minimum share it with all your friends and family, show them how smart you are!