Hurricane Milton
Markets Sluggish Start
Alright so I just wanted to fire this one off before I set off out of town for the mandatory evacuation for the Western Coast of Florida. Hurricane Milton has now turned into a major category 5 hurricane with Tampa FL directly in its cross hairs as shown in the latest forecast from the NWS website:
This follows hurricane Helene which already put a lot of homes in the area underwater and the tons of debris from all the damage still lines the majority of streets in the South Tampa region. Although there isn’t much we can prepare for, maybe some plywood, Tyvek or storm guard for flooding, none of it is any match for a 15ft storm surge and 115mph plus winds!
Anyway I also wanted to chime in on some chatter that many are seeing in regards to these storms not being natural. A lot of it is conjecture for sure, but one area that I like to focus upon is the waning earth’s magnetosphere. Yes the earths climate is changing, but since we live in an electromagnetic universe, a lot of it has to do with the universe changing, our sun changing and ultimately life on Earth will also adapt and change. Climate is variable and it is cyclical and yes a weaker magnetic field will lead to all sorts of chaotic variable weather. In fact evidence of the Earth’s changes is on display this week as the Auroras have been spectacular and no, we are not cheering the fact that we are seeing more and more red hue aurora. This is a testament to that weakening field and we are starting to see it in lower latitudes, just more evidence that we are embarking on some serious changes.
Ok so new readers, you will see that its not all just about markets, trading, economics, monetary policy, we have many interests and we always like to share our thoughts on all the topics we enjoy. We hope you dig deeper into the things we cover, to further your own understanding and to learn something new maybe. We always have new things to learn, to discover and having so much access to information and data, there simply isn’t enough time in the day to cover it all!
Ok onto the markets, we will update our markets data tomorrow and send out our sheet as always, but hurricane prep has taken up a lot of our time today, so we will share just a few charts we think you should be aware of.
If you read our last post you will know that the Dec SP500 futures downside area to watch was 5725, well we are nearing that level and I believe a break of this will unleash some new fresh selling, so keep an eye on a weekly close below this:
Of course it will act as first support on the way down, but how it reacts, on the daily and the weekly charts will give us a good indication of new momentum perhaps and we always need a good line in the sand to determine bias and 5725 is certainly one of those.
The Dec Nasdaq is a bit further away from our level that we want to watch, but none the less this week hasn’t started out on a good note for the equities:
Yes we know China and its stimulus are working overtime and blowing out a few HFs short the indexes over there, but that too will come to an end. The reality is you can’t print your way to true prosperity, in the case of China, they can try all they want, but that money will get offshored somehow and no they will not be immune from a US recession that we are certain. So keep an eye on what’s going on over there as well as things get spicey on the volatility level, as fast as that market has gone up, it will fall even faster!
Ok our last chart is the ETF QQQ chart, it has once again backed off from this 486 area and this is very significant as this is the Fib 0.786 retrace, a formidable target/reversal area. Bulls you have to regain this level, Bears you can press and short into that level and know that you will be wrong a trade back above there:
For us, well we will be heading North tomorrow and further inland we suspect this hurricane to make landfall as a Category 3, we have been threw a few of these already but this one is different, its direct, its massive and the fact that it started out in the Gulf and heading straight for us, well that is rarer indeed, so we will not tempt mother nature. If it is one lesson we have learned in life it is that “we are never truly in control, we have the mere illusion of control if only for a short while, ultimately, our life is left to fate.” Sometimes you have to quantify the risk vs the reward, well usually you have to do that, but usually its not a life or death situation! In trading its Buy, Sell or Do Nothing, it really isn’t any simpler than that!
Till next time.