Metals Pounded This Morning and After the Close NFLX and ISRG Earnings, Plus Words of Encouragement
Subscriber Update Oct20 2025
Thank you to all the new subscribers last week, both regular and founding members, we greatly appreciate your validation to our work. We strive everyday to bring you clean data, to bring you clean and clear insight to the various markets that we think matter to everyone. We live in a world inundated with data and information but a lot of it is just fluff, regurgitation, whereas we try to convey specific and useful information. Our goal is always to keep you informed and to continue your progress in learning how to think outside the box.
Everyday is a chance to improve, a chance to learn something new, a chance to make a difference. We need to continue to strive toward excellence and improve our chances of success. We try to convey our words in a manner reflective of our many years trading complex markets, but also reflective of our many years studying psychological processes and what it truly takes to generate a positive mindset. You see, it is all intertwined, everything affects everything else, but know this, success is found by accumulating incremental gains, no matter how small, eventually it all adds up!
The movie “The Matrix” had a fantastic quote and the picture below captures its essence. Your mindset is what truly sets the base layer for your future outcome, we cannot stress that enough. Yes we know its hard, yes we know when the world seems like its got its boot on your throat, that things aren’t going your way, well know that it is purely up to you to change your mindset:
Alright before we get into a little option breakeven analysis for today’s key earnings from Netflix and Intuitive Surgical, let’s take a look at the current action in Gold and Silver thus far. As far as Gold futures, the rejection at the $4400 level has now pushed market players toward the first weekly support down at $4100 as volatility remains high as Gold is -5.1% this morning:
Silver futures are -6.7% today as our weekly resistance level at $51.75 has been rejected and now the $46.15 area may be in focus now which is our weekly support:
Another chart that we are laser focused upon and one that confirms the underlying deterioration in short term funding markets is the US govt 10y yield chart. When we look at this we can’t help but think how many accounts are short bonds and will eventually get their faced ripped off here by a word called “convexity.” As long time bond traders, we can only say the world isn’t ready for yields to collapse, but it sure seems like the path of least resistance to us:
So many have incorrectly inferred inflation to be a precursor to higher rates and we had to listen to so many analogs to 1979 where inflation surged for a second time, well we hate to inform all those keen economists who obviously do not understand today’s monetary mechanics, HIGHER RATES LEADS TO HIGHER INFLATION AND LOWER RATES LEADS TO DEFLATION!
Its a concept many fail to realize because of their own inherent misunderstandings of our monetary system as it exists today. We are strictly governed by a bifurcated system, one that is defined by the Matthew Principle. For those that are not familiar with the Matthew Principle it goes like this,
To those who have everything, everything will be given and to those who have nothing, everything will be taken away!
It is a very profound statement and one that many fail to truly digest, to truly conceptualize, however it is one that you need to truly reflect upon.
So many take that statement and take the negative sentiment from it, but don’t do that, rather look at it this way and it goes with our incremental gains statement we made earlier, start doing the right things, start challenging yourself to get better at something and the more you stack your wins, the more accelerated your success becomes!
Ok guys let’s move to some options analysis for today’s earnings for Netflix and Intuitive Surgical. When we look at the options markets for each equity we generally use the Friday expiration and the current ATM or at the money Straddle (long calls and long puts). With Netflix near $1240 we will look at the $1240 straddle. The call is priced at $46 and the put is $45.50 for a total cost of $91.50. This equals a move of about 7.37%. There are about 10k calls from $1240 to $1300 and there isn’t any real size on the puts until the $1200 strike, so it may seem the market makers would prefer a move toward $1200. So when we look at the chart from a technical perspective we know $1215 continues to be our median pivot area. We also know the first sell off was thwarted by the 0.382% retrace level at $1144 and the next time it trades down there it will break through. As far as the bulls, they need NFLX to get back above $1266. All in all the options are expensive and we would expect volatility to collapse out of the pricing of these options after earnings but we really don’t see any decent trade set ups other than aggressive investors selling this volatility:
When we look at Intuitive Surgical we will use the $465 straddle. The calls are priced at $19 and the puts at $17 for a total of $36, which represents a move of 7.74%. There is chunky Open Interest (OI) in the $450 calls, the market makers would love to see a move below this area. For those looking to trade this and considering the OI in the $450 calls maybe we should price out the $440/$420 put spread. Its currently priced at about $4.10. So the risk reward is $4.10 to make $15.90 at max profit or 3.87x risk reward. Here is the chart:
Alright that is it for the free view access, please think about supporting our efforts here. Our goal is simple, to make you the most informed trader, investor, person so that you too can become a single reliable source that others can come to. We force you to rethink your mindset, to go way outside the box and remove inherent bias to become a more non linear type of thinker. In the subscriber only section we dive deep into the global macro look via our settlement sheets, our data trackers and our hedged equity book data and our Markets Sentiment Indicators. We believe we offer subscribers a solid view point quantitatively and effectively to improve their investing and trading acumen. So sign up, its well worth it and at the least, share our work!
