Non Farm Payroll Week & Q4 Begins

Subscriber Data Sept26

All eyes will be on the Friday Payroll report as we enter the 4th quarter this week. The markets are still trying to decipher the FOMCs rate path but honestly they are clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place. This is all self induced as decades of monetarism have led the United States toward a goldilocks delusion by which money printing has thwarted all known economic forces and has hijacked traditional economic cycles. By bypassing the necessary forces of economics by masking them with years of ZIRP, years of balance sheet expansion, we all now find ourselves beholden to the fiscal constraints of a tighter restrictive economy with little incentive to take risk and play pass the hot potato. As we said last week, the stock market is not a reflection of the general well being of the economy, rather its an output measure of the amount of capital concentrated in the top 1% hands, nothing more. In fact the games we see now with the likes of Nvidia and OpenAi prove the point that the money doesn’t even have to exist for it to add to the economic forces behind investors allocating resources toward said companies. It is a strange thing to pledge capital that you don’t even have yet, but its a stranger thing for the general market place to actually believe that it makes sense or will ever come to fruition. One thing is clear with Ai, that is energy prices will continue to go through the roof and your basic commoner will be paying a very hefty price for it!

Ok let’s take a look at the QQQ ETF where last week was a bit of a defensive consolidation and we aren’t sure what investors are bullish upon. This stage of the cycle should be reflecting more absorption and consolidation with profit taking to slowly start to emerge, yet it seems retail still believes the hype:

What is also strange is the move in Gold and Silver post the rate cut. What we may be seeing are some clear signs of FOMO and perhaps weak shorts finally tossing in the towel. We can’t help but think that a down move like the one that occurred in Copper is plausible should a top start to emerge. However the fundamentals behind the stronger metals in regards to their moneyness attributes does make sense for those that believe the global central banks have pushed the fiat narrative about as far as it could and now the real money is starting to emerge:

As far as the equity futures the SP500 is targeting 6775 where the bulls will want to keep the momentum on their side if they can get a weekly close above there. A break of 6629.75 will keep the focus on the short side this week:

The Nasdaq futures have 25250 as the key for the bulls with 24200 the key for growing momentum in the bears favor:

Crude Oil is strong and it has us wondering what is brewing geopolitically because this move isn’t that consistent with the fundamentals that we are seeing. What we are trying to say is, we would not fade this move in Crude and the longs may have unknown factors working in their favor, so keep an eye on this market here:

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