Non-Farm Payrolls Friday
Subscriber Only Update Jan8 2026
As always Magnelibra Readers, lets begin with our positive daily affirmation:
“If you can create it in your mind and you can believe it in your heart, then you can achieve it!”
Well guys, we have the first big US jobs data of the year tomorrow. The street is expecting a relatively soft print, with plenty of caution about potential volatility in markets like stocks, crypto, gold, and the dollar. Consensus expectations are coming in around +60,000 to +70,000 jobs added.. The unemployment rate is expected around 4.5% (slight dip from recent levels), with wage growth watched closely for inflation signals. Many long time readers know that a series of negative prints will usher in a panic mode for the FOMC to cut rates faster and usher in the next major down leg in bond yields.
Many players believe that a weak than expected number or even a negative one could boost dovish Fed cut bets as we noted, but many mistakenly think this will be supportive for risk assets like equities/crypto/gold. Initially that may be the reaction but it will sour quickly as money gets pulled out of assets and into the safe haven of the front end of the U.S. yield curve.
The Crypto crowd is eyeing it closely for any reason to rush into buy mode and most likely will be looking for a weak NFP to increase the potential for a BTC and gold rally on easier policy expectations.
The defense stocks were mostly higher today on news of the increased budget spending, but the tech stocks were mixed as you guys will see in our MEGA9s data, driving the Nasdaq weaker on the day vs the other indexes who performed much better.
Here is the Nasdaq futures chart where the daily shows our resistance level this week put a decent top in and tomorrows close will be very important. A move above 26k and the bulls are back in charge, a fail here and move below 25k will bring in systematic and fast money sellers looking for levered longs to puke:
The SP500 with a similar set up here now and bulls will need to regain above 7025 for weekly momentum and prevent a roll over and move below 6875 support in the futures here:
When we look at the SP500 vs Nasdaq futures spread chart, we can see that the SP500 has been consolidating here and a move above the 21pMA in turquoise would be very bullish for the SP500 to outperform and would most likely do so in a lower overall equity downtrend environment:
When we look at the QQQ ETF tomorrows close will be a great indicator for the rest of January and Q1 in general perhaps:
Crude Oil had a decent rally today on global risk with Venezuela, Iran, etc. This one can go either way, a negative non farm print and oil should move lower, but overall global tensions may see this stabilize to higher here for the short term:
Here are the economic numbers for tomorrow from MarketWatch:
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