Non Farm Payrolls Higher & Happy 4th
Trading Data Update July 3 2025
Non farm payrolls came out higher than expected as 147k jobs were added in June and May was revised higher as well. So well above the 106k expected and as one could imagine, bonds didn’t like that number and yields jumped. Here is the 2yr which jumped 9.3bp on the day:
The equities liked the number and both the SP500 and Nasdaq futures closed right near our weekly resistance levels:
We also saw the Big Beautiful Bill go through and will be signed tomorrow, opening the flood gates for spending and undoubtedly $2Tn a year deficits for the foreseeable future. This actually jives well with our thesis that the US govt has been subsidizing the banks buy transferring billions of risk free interest, actually $1Trn now per annum from the govt (tax payers ultimately) to the private sectors. This is the problem now with a high Federal Funds rate, it increases the borrowing cost, but on the flip side it acts as a subsidy to the investment class. Honestly with the recent M2 up tick, its not because of loans creating new money, its because the US govt interest payouts which amount to $100Bn per month!!! Look at this chart, the yellow bars are not something we should envy:
Ok guys that is it we have subscriber only data up next, enjoy the 4th of July festivities, get out and see some fireworks, have some nice cocktails and conversation with friends or family if you are lucky enough and above all stay safe, spread joy and cheer and make a difference in this world!
We have absolute new bottom of the barrel pricing for the entire month of July. So if you aren’t subscribing please do so, it will never be cheaper to do so!
We have all the MTR Subscriber data and trading trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system and perhaps implement some of our trading trackers into your own investment profiles!
Magnelibra CTA Futures Market Trend Sentiment (Our proprietary commodity trading advisory futures market sentiment long/neutral/short market flows indicator) The portfolio is made up of the core futures markets we cover and the indicators are for single contracts of the futures market, whether long, short or zero neutral. The P+L is generated via the starting daily position and the ending daily settlement. This is considered a high risk alternative strategy. However most investors should leave a portion of their overall portfolio within a high risk basket. Some of the percentages of the overall portfolio dedicated to high risk should vary from 3% to 18% depending on ones overall time to invest and risk profiles. We added the Sharpe to our data now as well for those quantitative types!
MCA CTA markets sentiment changes: NG moves to -1 Short bias and A6 moves to 0 Neutral Bias:
Daily Settlement Sheet (Magnelibra’s Futures and Cash bond market coverage of the daily settlement prices and dollar value of the contracts given move)
The U.S. Bond Yield Curve (This is our daily graphic displaying the U.S. bond market yield curve changes. We follow the 2 year thru 30 year durations. Please note that bond prices work inversely to yield changes so for instance if bond prices are rising and moving upward, then their yields are falling or moving downward. We also track the relationship between the durations known as US YCurve Spreads, when we list it as 2s5, we are comparing the yield differential between the 2 year vs the 5 year with the positive/negative viewed from the higher durations perspective.
The U.S. yield curve was flatter on the day as the 2Y jumped 9.3bp on the day, we have seen curve support at these levels prior, so let’s see if the front end of the bond curve catches a small bid next week:
The 5 & 30 Day rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers (The last 5 trading days and 22 trading days net changes)
Wow look at the R2k and Dow Indexes leading the way this week that is a rarity! Copper is the star performer amongst a strong metals group this year, the US Dollar the loser although running into some long term support areas now:
Magnelibra MEGA9s Portfolio Tracker (This is a synthetic long only portfolio of the Top 9 largest equities by market cap. We started this tracker because we understand Ai dominates the investment landscape and operates in a binary construct. What we mean is that it issues a buy or a sell and will do so in reinforcing mechanisms, meaning if alpha is rising it will add, if it is falling it well sell and remove. We also created a “hedge” for those that want a more active approach to tactically maximizing their long only static portfolio of equities)
The MEGA9s market cap gained $219Bn today with Broadcom leading the way and The hedge expired and was a small loser but overall didn’t negated much of this weeks overall up move as the hedged portfolio is still ahead the unhedged by 1.31%!
MEGA9s total market cap chart (This chart represents the total market cap of the MEGA9s and lists the 21pMA in pink along with the 50p and 200p MA)
The 50/200pMA has not crossed higher (50>200) so let’s see if this leads to any systematic buyers coming in:
StrategyB/ BTC Trading Tracker (Bitcoin vs MSTR equity, Our MicroStrategy Covered Call Portfolio Tracker, Long 100 shares MSTR and short 1, 4% to 10% out of the money call on Monday’s open each week)
This weeks option sale the $405 Call expired OTM and the strategy is +29.9% since 12/1/24:
For those that don’t know, Strategy’s product is the “equity” itself and for now this equity and debt for BTC swap they deploy is working…will it work in the long run, well that remains a story untold!
MSTR premium over outright Bitcoin is 1.84x. Total BTC owned now is 597,325. Their dollar cost average is $70,982. MSTR BTC Yield from our calculations is 12.09% well below their 15% target level:
Alright Happy 4th of July on this 249th birthday for the United States, we hope you are able to spend some time with loved ones and keep it safe out there!
We appreciate all of your support and stay positive and know that you are well informed. The world is there for you to maximize your interests and expand your horizons and if you are lucky enough to be able to share it with someone, you are then truly blessed!
Start moving in the right direction, take hold of the reigns and stack the probabilities of success in your favor, every little step matters, every stumbling block over come matters.
You don’t owe it to anyone else, you owe it to yourself.
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