Non (Funny) Farm Payrolls
Yields Spike Unemployment rate falls
Hey everyone hope you guys are having a great start to your Friday. Today’s juicy economic report is none other than Non Farm Payrolls and as has been the case all year, another beat. Today’s BLS number for September came in at +254k while the expected number was an estimated +150k. Also the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
There really is nothing else to say about these numbers, we know their not real, we know they are fabricated and no, that is not conspiracy theory. Last month the actual BLS revisions for the last year reduced actual employment by a stated -818k jobs. Now you know damn well if they are stating -818k its probably much higher than that in reality! Here is a chart of the BLS revision via CNN:
We also know the real fundamental data does not jive with the BLS reporting as Challenger Gray and Christmas data for job cuts this year is way up, 3x the volume seen in 2022:
2Y US Govt Note yields jumping off of this report adding 15.4bp so far today, no 3.861%:
With this jump in yields we also have a corresponding drop in rate cut expectations for next months meeting. CME watch tool now showing the probability for a 50bp cut at only 9%, falling from 53%:
As far as the equity futures markets we are seeing a broad based rally with the SP500 +48 points to 5797 and bouncing off that all important weekly level we have been highlighting at 5725:
The bulls this week have once again been saved by today’s report but you guys at least know the level to watch and protect your long positions against. As far as the Nasdaq futures they also are rallying hard up +246 points to 20237 area also avoiding that important support at 19811:
We took a peek at the US dollar strength today and one chart that stood out to us was the Suisse Franc Futures. The daily chart is cracking the 50 VWMA but we would expect a bit of support around this area, so will see if there is a push to close it closer to 117.50 today. Technically a bounce from here would make sense but a weekly close below could prove that the dollar strength may last a bit longer here so keep an eye on this one you currency related traders:
Another technical chart we want to look at is Crude Oil and the December futures are pushing toward that $75 resistance area after a face ripping 13% move off the lows. We suspect sellers are here and think this area is as optimal a short location as one can get, stops above $75 obviously:
This is another chart that interests us and it is a chart of Dec Gold, will it get its first weekly down candle this week after posting 3 straight weeks higher??? Its also butting up against the start of our key resistance areas, so we suspect sellers lurking here now:
Alright guys in related financial markets news, we are now officially above the $200Bn marker in regards to the FOMC Deferred Assets, truly astonishing! Maybe the FOMC can borrow some cake from WBuffett! Remember this is the accounting trick used to quantify the amount that the FOMC needs to recoup in order start sending profits back to the US Treasury. We estimate it will take a move to 2.50% in Fed Funds to cure this behemoth, so we expect that to hit by July/Sep 2025 period next year:
In science related news, a massive X9 Solar Flare, the largest of this solar cycle 25 launched yesterday and we should suspect significant solar storms as a result. This follows the previous days X7 and should produce beautiful auroras!
We keep an eye on this stuff because the Earths climate is variable and every changing and we believe solar activity in our electrical universe is always something to keep an eye out for. After all, we are electrical beings ourselves and we know this type of activity has far reaching effects and we all need to learn just a bit more about our ever changing realm!
Ok we leave you with our revised daily settlement sheet. We will once again begin hiding our daily sheet and content behind the paywall reserved for subscribers, because well it takes a tremendous amount of time and effort. We love growing our subscriber base and we trust that those that can will support us and those that cannot would at least expand our network by sharing our work! We hope the weekly and monthly changes which we now include allow you guys to get a bigger picture of all the monetary flows. Its apparent that equities, metals and energies have been big recipients of capital flows over the last month!
We are glad that the ILA strike has been averted till January or perhaps they will come to a resolution before then, no matter, this is good news on all fronts. Anyway, we hope you learned something from today’s post and we wish you all the best in all your endeavors, till next time…