Nvidia a Dud and QQQ Hugging the 21pSMA
Subscriber Data for Aug27 2025 -December Futures Interest Rate Roll
Well Nvidia earnings and forward guidance weren’t a hit with the investment community as the initially reaction saw the stock fall. However currently Nvidia is just down a bit over 1% on the day and stuck toggling along the 21pSMA:
For technicians, this movement doesn’t really provide anything other than the continued bull/bear battle here around $180. When this type of pattern ensues, this is a base formation awaiting a further catalyst higher or lower. One thing that we will watch tomorrow is whether or not the 21pSMA holds or if we get a weekly close under there, giving the bears a slight advantage.
Overall we will continue to watch this weeks close here in anticipation of the real fireworks that will come with next weeks Non Farm Payroll data! For now the QQQ which is our overall proxy measurement of overall market sentiment and risk is continuing to bounce off of the 21pSMA:
As far as another data point of overall risk, we have been waiting for the US Govt 2Y to finally break our lower trend line, well yesterday’s close finally did it!
This has been a long time in the making and when we hear people say that the Federal Reserve has no control over the bond market, we can’t help but laugh…in fact this next chart should solidify the fact that the FOMC has absolute control over the very front end of the U.S. bond market and the structure of the yield curve is all the proof you need:
Take a look at the curve and look at the 2Y yield compared to the level from when the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed happened in March of 2023. You can see the yield today is now 3.639% which is 14bp lower but look at the 30Y yield its 125.9bp higher today (4.901%) than its yield from March 2023 of 3.642%!
The result of the FOMC initial rate cuts and the current assessment the Federal Reserve has forecasted for their upcoming rate cuts has absolutely without a doubt caused the curve to be steeper or more positively sloped than both prior yield lows from March 2023 and certainly from the yield high prints from October of 2023!
We know it may sound a bit complicated but if you look at the chart you can clearly visualize the current slope of the curve from the 2Y out to the 30Y and its this slope that truly offers us the insight to how the bond market perceives the future of interest rates.
Don’t worry please continue to read and hopefully if you can afford to, subscribe to our work. We know you will gain an absolute astute insight and command of how our financial system truly work as Magnelibra or MTR as we like to call it, focuses upon the things that truly matter!
Another thing we want to point out is that if you are interested in the fixed income or financial futures markets the CME group has some really great tools so we suggest you take advantage of their information that they have to offer. For instance spending a career in bond arbitrage, terms like “cheapest to deliver” and Dv01 or the dollar value of 1 basis point understanding was essential. Other things like inter commodity spread ratios and term funding costs or Repo are also key. The CME Group puts out treasury analytics that provide excellent data points for further analysis and understanding things such as their data graphic below found under their Treasury Analytics area:
Also our subscribers who get the daily settlement sheet please note we have rolled all the financial bond future contracts from September to December and this CME Group graphic is key to helping follow if there are any changes to the various bond spreads and their cash market instruments:
Ok we will now move onto our subscriber only section where we highlight all the daily data and trading trackers that we hope our investors use to compliment their own investment themes. We believe the way we structure our data, the way we present it to you, offers a unique advantage to follow along and learn how to trade and invest in a more global macro hedged format. We really put a lot of effort into trying to best convey the markets movements, the base case fundamentals that exist and then to extrapolate them into actionable processes. We believe that if you follow our work, start implementing some of the things that we present, you will not only improve your odds of winning but also gain an invaluable mindset to take through all facets of your life. So think about subscribing and becoming a supporting member, at the least share our work if you can!
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