NVIDIA BLOW OUT EARNINGS
Ok lets just post the after hours pic first shall we +26.7% adding over $200Billion in market cap:
From Zerohedge:
Adjusted EPS $1.09 vs. $1.36 y/y, beating estimates of 92c
Revenue $7.19 billion, -13% y/y, beating estimates $6.52 billion
Data center revenue $4.28 billion, +14% y/y, beating estimates of $3.91 billion
Gaming revenue $2.24 billion, -38% y/y, beating estimates of $1.98 billion
Professional Visualization revenue $295 million, -53% y/y, beating estimates of $246.6 million
Adjusted operating expenses $1.75 billion, +8.8% y/y, below the estimate of $1.78 billion
R&D expenses $1.88 billion, +16% y/y, below the estimate of $1.92 billion
Adjusted operating income $3.05 billion, -23% y/y, beating estimate $2.57 billion
Adjusted gross margin 66.8% vs. 67.1% y/y, estimate 66.6%
Free cash flow $2.64 billion, +96% y/y, below the estimate $2.94 billion
We know the Nasdaq was under pressure all day in the June Futures trading right around 13600 around 1:30pm, but then the bids started to come in , “who knew?”
We expect the Nasdaq futures to open up around +190 points now tonight above 13800!
As far as our MegaCap Tracker here you go, our hedges working great for our trading tutorial and we know if tomorrow holds, this thing will be way up:
Just to put this move into perspective, Nvidia went from $6 to $70 from 2015-2018 and this recent move is just testing the 2021 highs from the 2022 lows a decent 3x move, but here was Qualcomm from 1999. Similar to Nasdaq MegaCaps today, but honestly with a $9Trillion FRB Asset base, (up 10x since Qualcomm went from $4 to $100 back in 99-2000) we should expect the MegaCaps to funnel all the capital, to be honest at the expense of the US Govt being the defacto risk free rate, which is no longer the case:
As far as bonds today, the US Govt auctioned off $43Bn ($51Bn with SOMA) and it was a blowout, one for the record books with a 1.4bp stop through and the 2nd highest indirect takedown ever! Guess the recent up tick in yields was enough for everyone.
However the US yield curves continued to suffer with the 2Y seeing the bulk of the selling continue throughout the afternoon as yields were up 10.3bp in the 2Y:
Finally we leave you with this rent vs buy chart:
We aren’t sure what to make of all this, other than the fact that traditional economic factors don’t seem to matter, that QE has totally distorted the natural equilibrium of things. Who can afford to keep playing this charade before it all breaks? Are we in a new paradigm, do we find ourselves in the middle of a fantasy affordability by which everyone lives an influencers TikTok dream in fantasy land with all sorts of special filters to mask reality? Whatever it may be or how ever this may end up, one thing is certain, the Federal Reserve will continue to expand its balance sheet, the US government will continue to overspend and the debt ceiling will be raised as it has been done some 70 times before…
Maybe its easier to just accept the fact that debt isn’t going anywhere but up, prices aren’t going anywhere but up and to think otherwise you would just be a fool. This is why Magnelibra created the MegaCap Tracker, to prove this point, to prove that unless society shuts down as a whole, like during Covid, prices will just continue to reflect the ongoing stealth devaluation in global fiat currencies. That is the regime we are in, its simply fiat devaluation masked as higher and higher debt levels and asset prices.
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