"Operation Midnight Hammer"

Subscriber Daily Trading Data for June 20th 2025

According to today’s briefing, held by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on June 22, 2025, they announced that more than 125 military aircraft participated in “Operation Midnight Hammer,” which targeted 3 suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. Vice President JD Vance also said that he believes that U.S. airstrikes have set back the regime’s nuclear program. ( A story we have been hearing for 4 decades now?)

So we know Iran will potentially retaliate and close the straight of Hormuz as Axios reported:

Why it matters: Impeding the strait would likely bring a massive spike in oil prices that would flow through to U.S. consumers.

• The narrow channel between Iran and Oman is the chokepoint for a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade — and around one-fifth of all oil movements.

• Without diplomatic concessions from Tehran, the front-month Brent crude oil price could open "meaningfully above its $77.01/bbl Friday close.”

Axios posted this graphic on the amount of oil transported through the Straight each day:

So we await the futures markets open, but for now, we expect a pretty decent volatility spike. As far as Oil, well August Crude we suspect $84 to offer our first resistance backed up by $92 area. First support will be down at $72. The initial spike will most likely be held at bay by hedgers and fast money, but suspect incoming data every day will be the focal point for traders direction. If Iran escalates then expect higher prices if not, then expect Oil to trend back down to supports:

We hope and wish for these wars to be diplomatically solved, but today’s action will test this and we aren’t sure what the Iranian response will be, but the world just seems like its waiting for something more larger to occur. We certainly hope this is not the case!

As far as the Crypto currency markets, as we have warned Bitcoin once again is exhibiting that topping formation. We can’t help but think many buying up here have never been through a real Bitcoin bear market…all we hear is Bitcoin is going to $1m…we kinda just laugh at that, as only time and a growing ecosystem will allow for that to transpire. We are very far away from that point in time. Bitcoin has a lot of organic sellers to combat all this Wall Street and Bitcoin Treasury buying. Most notably here are the top consistent Bitcoin sellers:

1. Long-Term Holders (LTHs): 195,000–390,000 BTC ($19.5–$39 billion)

2. Miners: 94,500 BTC ($9.45 billion)

3. Retail/Traders: 50,000–100,000 BTC ($5–$10 billion)

4. Derivatives: 50,000–100,000 BTC ($5–$10 billion)

5. Basis Trade Unwinds: 20,000–50,000 BTC ($2–$5 billion)

6. GBTC Outflows: 10,000–20,000 BTC ($1–$2 billion)
   

   Total Sell-Side: 419,500–754,500 BTC ( that is a lot of sellers!)

As far as the chart we suspect this weeks first resistance to be at $104000 and initial support at $98500, which we just hit there this afternoon:

As far as the equity futures only a weekly close above 6081 area in the SP500 will flip our better seller theme here:

Same setup in the Nasdaq futures:

Gold is looking heavy here as well, we suspect if the U.S. Equity markets are topping out, then Gold will also move lower:

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