Profit Taking and Bond Yields Hits Risk
Technical Market Analysis
Good afternoon we just wanted to touch upon a few market insights that we think truly matter at this juncture. The Ai led boom has stalled and we know the day of reckoning will come in the future when humanity will decide the fate of the future of Ai models, will it be pay to play Ai vs or will free open source database and agency utility ultimately win out. We also know as technology advances so too does the urgency for individual and corporate security. We envision a future where the “cloud” becomes abandoned for more inhouse secure data warehousing and management. So the seeds are sown yet the battle lines are still blurry.
We use Anthropic and honestly ever since the Fable 5 incident and government intervention, well let’s just say it hasn’t been the same. Much like when Altman went in front of congress and ChatGPT was forever changed.
What hasn’t changed however and its the one constant we can always rely on, that is the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet! Last week posted another $10.7 billion added and now the assets are back above $6.8 Trillion. So the FRB feels a need to continue to expand its balance sheet, accumulate T-Bills and assist the global market place with its expansion. What has been an obvious historical precedence, will now doubt continue come the next real down turn and Magnelibra fully expects the FRB to push past their all time high just above $8.9 Trillion.
Ok as far as today’s markets let’s just look at a couple of technical charts for now. First let’s look at the US Govt 10Y yields. As you can see we are pushing the upper boundaries set for the last 3 years:
As far as the SP500 and Nasdaq futures where profit taking is occurring from the most recent ramp job:
Gold is also taking profit right on our bull/bear pivot:
We also wanted to show you a chart of the MEGA9s which have gone nowhere over the last year:
The next time someone tells you higher rates are bad for the banks, well show them this chart of JPM where no doubt the NIM pickup (net interest margin) is a decisive victory for them, nothing says risk free profits more than paying customers 2% below your investment payout rate.
Our final chart is Bitcoin and without Saylor and Strategy buying by the billions, well this market seems a bit cooked:
We continue to refine our offerings and we hope that you take advantage of our Founding Tier where we offer you our FTS Signal, which is designed as a real trading signal with daily update, orders and changes that reflect our proprietary signal model. We do try to give you a sample here and there and if you are working on developing your own trading strategy, or simply looking for a trading signal program then you should look at becoming a Founding member. We offer our Digital Currency Index access as well which we may turn into a signal offering in the future, but for now, our goal is to showcase our models ability to choose the winners in the digital space.
We hope you have a great rest of your day, we will post more here later with our usual subscriber only access and will do a full regular post with our Futures Market Trend Program which we have started to revamp from our trend only indicator to a more robust signal based output for both a $500k large trader investor and $1m base large allocator offering. We believe these are the right refinements to make, we believer our proprietary data and modeling can rival the very best of all signals out there and we look to prove it by giving our subscribers an occasional free look and our Founders full access to hopefully implement within their own risk metrics.
Till next time, cheers.
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