Quick Hits for Monday 12-9-2019
So we figured instead of waiting and writing a more comprehensive piece each month and considering we generally post weekly on LinkedIn, we have decided to take these posts and put them here in a consolidated form in order to give you a better idea on how we are processing information as it comes our way.
All trader and investors react differently to exogenous stimulus and we all see things differently due to our uniqueness, our backgrounds and our general tendency to process information. Which by the way, we fully understand that inherent individual cognitive processes are the culmination of years of experience and thus, no two individuals are alike. Our experiences are a culmination of growing up and maturing through over 20 years of market events such as the Asian Flu, the Russian Ruble, LTCM, Internet Bubble, 9-11 and in a little over a month after, the US Treasury decided to eliminate the 30yr bond (wonder who needed that to help their positions, GS?) to the 2001 market top, to the housing crisis and the great recession, to today where we find all the central banks acting in unison to expand balance sheet and keep the debt train Ponzi going and growing.
So with all that and as most of our avid readers have come to understand is that the only fundamental thing that matters is whether or not the central banks can and will continue to provide expansive balance sheets and more importantly overnight repo back stops. In today's Ponzi world, the only thing that matters is being able to finance speculative positions and shore up balance sheet requirements in return for overvalued collateral. Now we say over valued because the only way they actually have value, is because the central banks are willing to extend credit with a minimal haircut, well at least for now.
Anyway we will continue to post on LinkedIn and you can follow me here if you would like as well. So without out further ado, here are a few things we have seen so far to start the week:
The first thing we want to make clear is that the Federal Reserve operates far above the US Gov't and facilitates its unwavering thirst for debt, so to Trump, good luck, you really don't have a say in what they do. Second, the Fed itself likes to gum things up quite a bit with its double speak and rhetoric, the most recent being "just don't call it QE4" mantra. Well we know there a lot of individuals and astute one's at that, that merely buy into the Kool-Aid that they sell, but for our readers, let’s just call it what it is, Money Printing because when you expand your balance sheet by $150bn well there is truly no other words that can describe it, ahh and to think LTCM and their mere $4bn was going take down the financial world some 2 decades ago…now we print some 37x that a month! When the FED said they were going to let inflation go, they weren't kidding...inflating the money supply, inflates risk assets and inflates the top 1% fiat value control mechanism. Rinse, Recycle, Repeat:
Now onto our other posts from LinkedIn:
Now this next one was prompted when we found out MBenz was offering a whopping 2.75% Demand note, well the researcher in us had to dig into their 2018 Annual Report just to find the net interest income/expense and what we found didn't surprise us, a net interest expense of €3.17 Bn:
Finally, our readers generally know that we delve into various topics outside of trading and investing, as we feel a duty to our fellow mankind brethren to offer insights to stem the tides of propaganda and narrative. This week our focus is vaccines and given the chart we saw from Statista, we had to comment because the numbers not only didn't alarm us, but the quant in us saw it a much different way. In fact, we saw the narrative they are trying to spin, yet if you look at the numbers, you will see things are drastically different. Of course, Big Pharma makes big money off this, of course the unsuspecting consumer will just take the "experts" words even though most doctors spend less than one day on vaccines in medical school. Not to mention Big Pharma likes to leave out clause 13.1 in the pamphlets, that's where they discuss "Carcinogenesis, mutagenesis and impairment of fertility."
See dear readers, you must dig, you must research and above all, you must be your own best advocate. In the big world of finance, in the big world of big pharma, guess what, its profits and its always been profits that matter the most. This has been the same story repeatedly...but being informed can change that, this is our mission, we hope you understand. Anyway, here is the post:
OK, that's it for now, we will continue to keep you in the loop, we hope you enjoyed today's information and if there are topics or areas you would like us to research or touch upon, we have not limits, so feel free to ask, if it’s one thing we have learned in this tough world is that it’s always best to ask, the worst thing someone can say is no...cheers!
Thanks everyone for joining us for this week’s Econemotion brought to you by Mike Agne of Magnelibra Capital Advisors. You can find our blog page at www.econemotions.com where we write our weekly thoughts in hopes that we can provide you with unique insights upon markets, trading and risk. I am the manager of Magnelibra Capital Advisors which is an NFA registered CTA, that manages individual accounts and executes the Blue Dragon Discretionary Program, a long/short relative value futures and options trading program. Feel free to visit our website at www.magnelibra.com and follow me on LinkedIn as well.
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