Rate Cut Odds Soar, JPM Boycott?

Buy Chipotle Sell Apple?

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The rate cut odds for the December 10th meeting soared at the end of last week to now near 70% likely for a rate cut. Now it was near 92% certainty a month ago, but some waffling over the last few weeks led to the naysayers whom mostly do not understand our economic systems to believe the US govt or the FOMC can do anything but revamp the ZIRP methodology in our future:

We can see this sentiment shift in the US Govt Yield Curves as well as you can see from the 2s30 and 5s30 the steepening has resumed and now the 2s10 and 5s10 are participating as well:

The chart below is a good example and fuel for those who thing the FOMC doesn’t control the bond market, take one look at that 2Y yield at 3.512% and realize its down 171 basis points since Oct of 2023! This is just math guys, with the US Govt debt going up at annualized rate of 6.1% (this is the real inflation they don’t want you to see but is embedded in our real overall debt of our nation):

Alright let’s take a quick look at the US Govt 10yr yield chart and you guys know our line in the sand has been 4.09% for quite some time. Its right near it and a little blow, and the next break of 4% will be most likely the last time we see 4% for quite sometime:

In equity land, we feel enough damage has been done here and a bit of consolidative back and forth is in order. We suspect 585 in the QQQ will hold again if tested and now 608 becomes the next resell resistance and a close on the weekly above/below 602 becomes our trend pivot area:

Technical damage in the Nasdaq futures has been done but we tend to see the major MAs show support and the weekly 21pMA is providing that support for now:

The same setup in the SP500, we suspect bottom fishers will support on these technical levels here and consolidation is in order before we resume the downtrend that is now seemingly in place:

The Dax future has an even big support level here as the 50pMA stopped the selling in its tracks! However the next weekly close below this will usher in some major sell side action once again:

The US Dollar continues to see buy side flows here and is now above the bull/bear pivot:

Crude Oil futures are positing a more challenging scenario, with the US build up of forces outside of Venezuela, we are more apt to go with the bull case here, but the fundamental economic case is for a full fledge bear market, so this is a bit tougher of a market to navigate:

As far as gold this has all the signs of a longer term topping pattern here and with gold looking bullish, we can’t help but think, its a better sale up here:

We wanted to add a couple of equity based chart, first up Apple, we can see the longer term trend channel seems to keep putting a lid on this thing, so better sellers seems to be the call here:

We also want to look at JPM again, where they avoided a weekly close below our $296 area:

Considering all the chatter online about JPM and its ties to enabling Jeffrey Epstein as revealed by some sources, as well as the unverified rumors that they hold a massive Strategy Inc. short and attacking BTC outright, most likely so they can stack the coin themselves but first drive the price down! Who knows what to believe, but if this does gain steam, then this could put the top in for sure. We do know that Jack Mallers has been vocal about JPM shuddering his accounts. The Boycott JPMorgan is gaining steam online.

One equity we do like is CMG or Chipotle, we feel the stock has been bludgeoned enough to warrant some dip buying here and $32 seems favorable for an initial chunk to step in. We think there are longer term Pension Fund buyers that will step in here as well as Hedgies, so keep an eye here:

One unique way to play things for a more astute and experienced trader or investor is to buy CMG via selling of AAPL calls. Take the proceeds and park it into equity purchase or call buying of CMG outright. You can also sell puts in CMG to take on long positioning. For example short the $30 CMG puts and take in the extra premium from the volatility and you don’t care if you get exercised because you want to be long the stock anyway. In regards to shorting Apple to fund your Chipotle buys:

Sell 1 AAPL Jan 17 2026 $240 call → collect ~$5.80 credit ($580)
Buy 2 CMG Jan 17 2026 $35 calls → cost ~$2.80–$3.00 each ($560–$600 total)→ Nearly premium-neutral or even small credit
→ You now have massively leveraged upside in CMG (2:1 ratio) funded entirely by your bearish AAPL view
→ Breakeven on the whole position is basically wherever CMG is at expiration if AAPL stays below $240 (very achievable — that’s +7.5% in 8 weeks). If AAPL rips >$245–$250 (unlikely near-term catalyst), you lose on the short call but your CMG calls will still be exploding higher in a risk-on melt-up. Risk Management Rules (Aggressive but Not Reckless)

Things to remember:

1. Never sell more AAPL calls than you’re willing to close at 2–3× the credit received.

2. Set a hard stop -e.g. buy back the AAPL call if it doubles in value.

Always keep your risk and your goals in focus, these are aggressive plays but manageable and it is why we suggest these things to you. There are plenty of ways to express an opinion about specific markets and we hope you explore some of these options.

Ok guys buckle up, so many are so over levered, thinking the money printers will come to the rescue, but maybe the law of large numbers is just proving too much for them now. We know the precipice has been passed and that leverage continues to be wiped out, taking out and reversing decades of over speculation and hot potato. You want to stay informed and ahead of the pack, then stick with us.

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