Risk Bets Subtle Accumulation For Now
Bitcoin HODLers
Alright so today’s flows saw better buying in the front end of the US treasury Curve as the market continues to suffer from sell side flow. The US Govt 10yr was the weakest link (+4.2bp), which isn’t a surprise given its auction week, which today saw an abysmal 3Y tranche with a stop thru of about 4 bp, vastly different from last months auction but obviously the market still has a Powell hangover from last week. Here is how today’s US Treasury Curve looked at the close today with the curve slightly steeper:
As far as equities, the Nasdaq was the standout and as yesterday’s note suggested, continued outperformance is likely especially vs the other indices. The Nasdaq gained 261.25 points today as the March Future settled at 12776.75. Technically today’s action was very positive, especially after recouping all the downside momentum that incurred post Powell’s speech in DC. Powell’s speech today reiterated last weeks rhetoric:
“Labor markets remain a risk, but inflation to return to target by next year. The FOMC will probably need to do further interest rate increases with the strong jobs number underscoring there is a significant road ahead to get inflation back to target.” -Jerome Powell 2/7/2023
As the technical chart in the Nasdaq portrays, the down move today post Powell was completely erased and then some:
Nothing like a run up from 12550 to 12775 down to 12460 back up to 12820! As we can see from the daily chart the Nasdaq has closed above the 0.618 at 12718 and a close above tomorrow will confirm that the NQ bulls are still in charge:
As far as the SP500 4182 remains the key and unless we can get a close above there, we suspect sellers will continue to favor the Nasdaq over the SP, but it will be interesting to see how the bulls react to this level tomorrow:
We touched on the bond market earlier, but we wanted to post the Ten Year Futures chart as we have seen a close outside our trend channel which has been in place since Mid-October. We may see a continued push toward the low 112-00 area where longer term players will most likely begin to accumulate Tens again:
Today saw Crude have a decent up move bounce off that $73 area we spoke of and the API numbers were favorable for a continued push. We aren’t sure if this is war related or not as well but $73 holding is significant for now:
As far as the Metals, well Gold and Silver have seen a decent pull back for now and may look to consolidate here for a bit before the next direction is noted. Gold has stalled out for now at the 50p Vwap but we would think any proves below here will start to push the metal down toward $1800:
As far as Silver, we would be a patient buyer in the mid $21 area but would not sell this in the hole here:
Lastly we wanted to share this Bitcoin research chart which shows that nearly 50% of all owners are HODLers as this chart displays inactivity from the group for 2 years plus…i.e. not selling but longer term buy and hold strats:
Ok that is it for now, our thoughts and prayers are with the Turkish and Syrian people as they deal with the aftermath of those devastating earthquakes. Listen carefully, read up and understand the dynamics of our electromagnetic system. The volatility in our climate will intensify as time moves on as our weakening magnetosphere will allow for greater cosmic ray influence and a climate that will continue to feel the effects of the ongoing pole shift. You won’t hear about this stuff on mainstream news so do your digging, information is out there, so we suggest you start researching these topics. We suspect as time moves forward, the Earth’s changing fields will become obvious as to their effects on our every day lives.
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