Risk Reprice In Play

PLTR Earnings after the close tomorrow

Welcome MTR subscribers and guests, we hope your weekend is going well. We put out two prior posts, the first, was a little preview of what we saw into the close on Friday and today’s earlier post was the subscriber only changes to our Magnelibra Futures Market Trend Sentiment bias data sheet. This is the data that covers our market sector bias spanning from the 5 various global macro sectors that we follow. This sentiment is created from our CTA long/short global macro cross sector allocation model. We provide the readers with a unique and inside look at our overall position sentiment in 20 various global macro individual markets.

We know many can try to recreate an overall long/short global macro alternative portfolio simply by following our sheet, but the true design is to allow you to up your own game and see what variances you can create. You see risk varies, capital varies but if you break it all down, we believe an investor merely has 3 basic positions to choose from, Long, Short or Neutral. Honestly we don’t like to complicate it and within this structure we do all the work on the back end to let you know where our algorithm seems to position in each one of the 20 markets.

Anyway, we put that out to the subscribers on a daily basis and we were doing so for a very cheap entry fee. That is no longer the case, our product is now more institutionally priced and we feel that it is well worth it, we hope you subscribe so you can see it for yourselves. Occasionally we will post a free version so you can see it, but ultimately its subscriber only.

Ok we touched earlier upon the QQQ ETF, we follow this as the proxy for the overall tone of the equity markets. Last week it put in a text book false breakout and now this week we should see a confirmation of this reversal. The price technically is ripe for a correction but we are also seeing economic fundamentals deteriorate, most notably the employment situation. Friday’s report and revision for us is like the death nail in this equity exuberance. This weeks close on the QQQ will either fully confirm or simply move more subtly in the sell side direction. We move this weeks resistance at 567 and the support on the weekly is also the bull/bear pivot at 547:

A close above 560 and we get a basic consolidation move which would benefit bulls this week. A close near or below 547 would tell us the down move will accelerate and drag in the systematic trend followers. So this week is important for the future direction of all risk assets in our opinion.

We see this QQQ setup as similar to the Nasdaq futures itself:

The SP500 also has this same setup so you guys have the areas of interest. 6150 support should be tested this week:

Lets move real quick to Apple, you guys know we were looking for a close outside the range there post earnings, and wouldn’t you know it, Apple closes above by a little over $1 our weekly support:

So overall risk seems to be taking a breather here and the US bond markets are also confirming this changing sentiment. Take a look at the US Govt 10Y chart:

A breach of the 4.09% should set off some decent buying follow through and drive yields lower. We saw the yield curve with a huge bull steepening spike on Friday and those are the expected routes we should see moving forward. The bond market will start to force the FOMCs hand in anticipation of the next round of rate cuts! Quite sure Trump will be happy with that. We will go more into the yield curve and have all our usual subscriber data plus shed light on the options land in Palantir in the next section.

Let’s just see what this week has in store! Please hit the like button, please try to subscribe to support our mission and enhance your own knowledge on these complex topics and as always, have a great week everyone.