Thank you for joining me for another edition of the Magnelibra Markets Podcast, I’m your host Mike Agne and today’s episode #15 is entitled “SEC X Compromise and Tracker Changes, Bitcoin ETF, Not for Us”
But first a quick regulatory disclaimer:
DISCLAIMER: The following podcast is for educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for all listeners.
So we all know that the world is awaiting the SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF and yesterday on X, the SECGov account posted this:
Then 15 minutes later Gary Gensler the SEC Chair posted on his own X account that the SECGov account was “Compromised!”
So what really happened? Well Elon Musk put the team to work and the X safety team put out a statement at 10:28PM that confirmed,
The SECGov account was compromised and that an authorized phone number was used to gain control and was able most likely because there wasn’t a two-factor authentication enabled at the time!
When we see things like this happen and we have institutions at the highest levels, which should be the beacon of trust and security, as well as governmental and departmental oversight, it makes you wonder, what else in our government is susceptible.
What other systems lack the proper security protocols and procedural or lack of procedural integrity? Furthermore, you begin to question things and start to believe that there is a good reason why there is not two-factor authentication enabled and its because there are people in charge of posting falsehoods, or posting things to insight market movements, so now we actually know that NO it is not out of the realm of possibility that social media sites are used to create certain narratives, sanctioned or not! What a crazy time this is and we feel the SEC after FTX has certainly dropped the regulatory ball and continues to do so with each and every misstep.
Here is the chart of the move off this fake X post and redaction 15 minutes later:
Anyway, it doesn’t surprise us and it shouldn’t surprise you guys either. Also we would just like to note, even if and when the SEC does approve these Spot Bitcoin ETFs we don’t believe it will ultimately prove to be a good thing. We believe it will create a whole host of manipulative derivative based products which could suck in a lot of retail capital to then be vaporized on any manipulation by the larger players up and down. Furthermore the layers of counterparty risk from issuer, to custodian to trusting even the fact that they will own any out right Bitcoin is suspect.
This seems like a landgrab by the centralized control mechanisms and as always we do not promote any ETF investment into Bitcoin. Rather be responsible, go on Coinbase yourself for example and buy Bitcoin directly. The real players will do that and then pull them off Coinbase and cold store them, but that takes major responsibility and understanding that you and you alone are responsible for your Bitcoin! So take up the good fight and go that route, if you need help then reach out we have no problem answering any questions or guiding anyone interested in learning more. We are proponents of a decentralized future and Bitcoin is just the start, there is way more to come.
As far as Bitcoin, when we look at the weekly chart we like the Fib 61.8% resistance area around $48.5k, we would not be buying this here and we know there is a lot of interest, yet we view global adoption as the precursor to ultimately drive it higher, not a Wall Street synthetic product, so we never buy BTC into any new high moves, rather time and time again has proven that waiting for downdrafts is the responsible thing to do:
A better location would be the retest of $30k and if the economy does soften, expect Bitcoin to go down with it as accounts that need to raise cash, will indeed do so and no commodity, security or even Bitcoin will be immune from that selling!
Ok onto our subscriber settlements and trackers. First up the settles from yesterday, kind of a muted day honestly with bond prices falling slightly, equities lower mostly with the Nasdaq up slightly, the US dollar was stronger against all majors, metals were all lower and the energy group was the best performer with Nat Gas continuing its run. We like Nat Gas here but would not chase this into highs, for those looking to go long, we prefer patience and a move back under 3.00 and even more so near 2.80:
We do have a few changes to the Futures Model Tracker as of the close yesterday and we do apologize this is coming out late. We added a Ten and 2 Fives to the bond portion, we reduced the Nasdaq short by 0.3, we added to the SP by 0.3 and added 0.3 in copper. We like Nat Gas but will not buy into the strength here, will await for profit takers to drive it near 2.85 to set any long positions:
When we look at our MEGA8s Nvidia continues to forge ahead and all those late to the party continue to hope for a 2024 resurgence. The tracker also closed out the option hedge at 5.13 so no hedge on for now. With CPI and PPI we suspect we will get some volatility and that hedge may be too costly vs the overall package at this point:
When we look at the MEGA8s performance since 5/10/23 its obvious that Nvidia continues to be the standout making new market cap highs with Google and Meta holding up very well also. Tesla continues to be the weak link of this group. This chart displays the net dollar change (not market cap) vs their high net dollar change since May 10th 2023:
Alright that does it for now, thank you to all of our current subscribers for supporting our work and if you cannot afford to subscribe, we understand so if you could please just leave a like or share our work with some of your colleagues and friends, we would greatly appreciate it. Till next time…Cheers
