Silver Blows Out, FOMC Week and MSTR Buys More BTC, USD Cyclicality = Reversion
Subscriber Update Jan26 2026
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Silver put in a massive daily candle today running up toward $118 then spending most of the afternoon in sell mode, pushing the contract to the low of the day down at $101.70. However Asia’s open tonight is seeing buyers emerge once again, in a theme that we believe may still have more room to run. The global central banks and the world powers seem to be playing real money games here and the mad dash for physical treasury assets such as gold and silver seems to continue on unabated. If the United States is going to keep racking up the debt pile, well China seems to be trying to get ahead of all this debasement. Anyway let’s look at the Silver futures hourly chart:
As long as Silver continues to magnet the 21pSMA on the hourlies then the bulls are still in control. A close below $104 would indicate sellers have the edge, but to day trade this stuff is super costly now margin wise as the CME since Jan 13 has opted for a percentage based margin requirement of 9% of notional value for initial and maintenance margins. This means big fish adult swim only. Smaller players wanting to go long metals should opt for the physical 1 ounce variety and those looking to short this, well, longer dated put spreads would be recommended. As you can see from our chart, we only post supports and do not offer any resistance levels, because frankly there aren’t any!
As far as Gold futures we are looking at the April contract now. When looking at the hourly the technical buyers are patient and are buying at the 50pSMA:
Initial weekly support in the April contract comes in at $4926 and the bull bear pivot is at $4661, obviously we offer no resistance. The Feb to April roll spread was -$36 so when we look at this Feb Gold weekly chart below, we can extrapolate our supports and bull/bear pivots by adding $36 to these levels:
It is important to understand futures contracts and levels when you are rolling over from one contract month to the next front month. In this case Feb Gold has rolled to April Gold and this is why you need to account for the spread difference between the two contracts, its very important. A lot of modelers do not do this and instead focus simply on price levels which we think is a mistake.
With all this discounting of fiat going on, lets take a quick look at the U.S. Dollar. On the longer term cycle, we are about to break down and usher in the next down wave which should see the US Dollar lose about 35% vis a vis. This should negate a lot of equity outperformance and put U.S. based assets out of favor. This is highly counter narrative to Wall Streets power elites who simply always believe the U.S. is the only place to invest. Sometimes you have to account for the destruction of the unit of account and we believe the next decade this will force equities to reprice. Yes we know nobody thinks this way, but the USD cycle seems clear here:
Ok let’s take a look at US bond yields real quick and considering the markets view is that the FOMC is on hold this week with the odds sitting at 96%. We suspect the FOMC will refrain from cutting rates, although they most likely would opt to continue. Behind the scenes leverage is getting wiped out, but they need to stop the metals rise here and a one way is to not cut rates and to force the markets to rethink a few things here. When we look at the US Govt 10Y yields this week 4.24% is important as the bulls will want to see yields close underneath this level:
To further solidify our negative U.S. outlook for the next decade, we believe a little mean reversion has begun in this chart below. Do you think you want to hold assets valued in a currency expected to lose 35% over the next decade? This is how guys like Soros, Buffett, Dalio, etc beat the markets, the understand cyclicality, instead of overfitting their objectives, and trying to justify their own narratives, they look at the path of least resistance:
Let’s hop over to the QQQ ETF, where the Qs haven’t move really since October and 631 is our resistance area this week with support down at 612:
When we look at the March Nasdaq futures, the 26,450 level is an obvious target, we would like to see a test there this week and we suspect if it does it will once again get rejected. FOMC Wednesday may offer the chance for bears to set shorts up there if we reach that level:
The March SP500 futures are painting the same picture, they are looking at early strength this week to push shorts out, they will most likely succeed, and thus we believe better short locations lie above at the 7050-7075 area:
One last tech chart is March Crude, where $61.00 continues to hamper the bulls efforts, once again a weekly close below here will put the bears back in control:
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