Something Has Changed

Subscriber Update Nov7 2025

Good evening MTR readers, lets get right into it, we hope you are having a great weekend. We hope you aren’t too comfortable to lose sight of your goals. If you are too comfortable, well you aren’t taking enough risk, your not doing enough, get at it. Make a sacrifice today, build something, try something new, define your hill and tackle it!

We titled this weekends post as such because we honestly do feel things are changing. Sentiment is changing, risks are changing, the catalyst of this new found equity euphoria it seems has gone from trillions in new money and new spending and a new horizon, to an industry that is preemptively sowing the seeds for a trillion dollar bailout. We can’t help but think that this is not going to sit well with many. This rhetoric is not what you want to continue the full blown hype. We also know the crypto currency markets have been shaken and like we have been saying for a long time, “privacy” has been far too discounted and we think that script is flipped now.

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Ok let’s look at a few charts now. The first up is the QQQ we wouldn’t rule out a retest of the 625 area, but last weeks 37 point range is a game changer and we either get that test back to 625 or we risk a close below this weeks support at 605:

Another chart of significance is the DAX futures and the response of the 23500 level. We knew it was important technically and it bounced nicely off of it, the next time it won’t be so lucky:

As far as the Nasdaq futures, it too took on some technical damage and this does reinforce the belief that a longer term top is still being put into place:

We believe 24750 area will draw in sellers from the systematic trend following CTA crowd, so keep an eye there.

Gold continues to also put a topping formation in place and the battle will be back and forth here and vol may start to fall a bit here as we consolidate for the next move:

Alright we will expect continued talks about the government reopening and no doubt will lead to a up move in all risk assets, but it will not be enough to overturn what we are seeing in the underlying and declining fundamental economic forces.

As we near year end we suspect the markets to exhibit large moves like this up and down as accounts figure out what their strategies will look like for Q1. Everyone no doubt will be trying to assess the tax selling that may occur come first of the year and book profits and possibly reevaluate allocations.

The US govt 5Y seems ripe to collapse toward our 1.50% 2027 target. Yes we know nobody sees it, but its coming, there is no alternative, the debt cannot be financed at higher rates. This chart shows you the cost of our govt’s debt and why we believe rates must fall. 3.65% is huge and we will are looking for a weekly close under there in the coming weeks:

Ok that is all we will say for now, we highly recommend that you become a subscriber and enjoy our global macro viewpoints and also consider becoming a Founding Member to enjoy our added bonus incentives that comes with our Founding Member Digital Strategy Membership. We look to showcase to our Founders our ability to navigate the digital space and reward them back with discretionary rewards. Its our way to showcase the power of decentralization and the future of finance.

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