Status Quo

Subscriber Daily Trading Data for June 23rd 2025

Alright so we will continue to monitor the situation geopolitically but ultimately as time goes on we feel that some concrete resolution will have to come to pass. This idea that war is a prolonged, lob a few bombs here, lob a few there, let time pass is honestly quite strange. Our only conclusion is that this is a form of controlled appeasement rather than a definitive answer.

From the confines of pure monetary attributes, this offers the most costly type to the people. This leads to never ending conflict, conflict with out resolution and leads to year after year after year of endless spending on defense and war machinations. Maybe this is really just the intent, its the most logical one, this type of warfare has been going on for decades…the Middle East exhibits it, the Ukraine/Russia conflict exhibits it and none of it follows the concrete resolution of either a decisive victory or a diplomatic resolution.

We recently listened to a historian present his case for what may transpire here and ultimately he believes it will lead with the United States invading Iran. Will that come to pass, who knows, but he does make a case for it. We will link it below if you guys want to listen to it, take it for what it is, one mans opinion. We take it as a continuation of a doctrine that has been in place for quite some time and if it can lead to a final end to Middle East conflict, well then perhaps this may be the way.

Then again it reminds me of that scene from the movie “The Princess Bride” where the criminal Sicilian Vizzini tries to trick the masked hero of the movie Westley into drinking poison. Here is the scene and the statement,

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous is, never get involved in a land war in Asia!

Here is the scene from the movie, Princess Bride Scene

Can the United States afford such a costly conflict? We doubt it and we cannot see the upside in something as costly monetarily but more so personnel wise, this is the last thing the world needs right now in our opinion. I agree with the professor on the point that the United States has more to lose than more to gain in this regard.

Anyway back to the history professor and his game theory presentation, it can be found here, Predictive History - Game Theory WW3

For now the markets operate on the continued money flow from all the base layer multiplied by leverage. The fact that financial markets can shrug off conflict and rise and continue to rise means that the money is far to complacent and still in ample supply.

This is one of the reasons why we do not think the FOMC needs to cut rates, we would rather they shrink their balance sheet and continue to reduce that base layer of assets. That base layer is really the glue that binds everything together. Remember before Covid the FOMC balance sheet was under $4Tn, now its $6.7Tn, why such the need to print so much capital and bring so much future velocity and demand for money, forward?

We understand its a band aid, but its also the inflationary death nail for basic consumers affordability…all and every stimulus dollar ends up in the top 5% wealthy hands, no matter what the central banks do, this is always going to be the beneficiary class. They hide it very well this mechanism and cloak it as “stimulus” well for the commoner its absolutely transitory, for the wealthy, it becomes a permanent base layer for leverage multiplication, for acquisition for more and more assets. There is no counter to this argument, all the data points in this same direction. So with that its no wonder asset prices are immune, especially equities which can be heavily concentrated in just a few performing assets…

So this morning we see Trump who orchestrated a cease fire to only have both Israel and Iran violate it immediately. His response this morning was great, classic Trump,

We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don’t know what the F$%k they are doing!

Here is the link to the response, Trump Not Happy

Ok let’s check in on the SP500 and Nasdaq futures:

The SP500 weekly resistance has been moved to 6175 but 6145/6150 area is going to be formidable, but a close above on the daily will continue the move higher. The 21pSMA is rising and now at 6112, bears would want to push the market below there to test all the longs here:

As far as the Nasdaq futures 22425 is key weekly resistance and on the hourly chart the bulls continue to press here, but we may see consolidation here before the next attack on the 22425 area, bears will want to push the 21pSMA as well and that is down at 22250 so that will become our initial support backed up by 21500:

As far as Crude Oil, the first support at $72 has been broken and now hitting the $65 bull/bear pivot area where we expect buyers to emerge, below here targets $60:

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