Subscriber Update Data for Dec8-9 2025
FOMC tomorrow and Netflix and Paramount Battle for Warner Bros.
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Ok so to the big news thus far this week, Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion, gaining iconic franchises like Batman, Harry Potter and Friends alongside its hit originals. Netflix will also take on more than $10 billion in Warner Bros. debt, pushing the deal’s enterprise value to $82.7 billion.
The deal would give Netflix over 420 million streaming subscribers worldwide, making it far larger than any competitor in the streaming market.
Industry groups and anti-trust experts oppose the deal, citing threats to movie theaters and competition for creative talent in Hollywood.
The deal is subject to approval by Warner shareholders and government regulators in the U.S. and abroad. Netflix said it should be able to finalize the purchase in about a year to 18 months.
However per Reuters, it now seems that Paramount Skydance has launched a hostile bid worth $108.4 billion for Warner Bros Discovery. In a regulatory filing, Paramount said that the Ellison family, which owns Paramount, along with private equity firm RedBird Capital, had agreed to backstop $40.7 billion in equity capital. The offer also includes financing from Kushner’s Affinity Partners, the Saudi and Qatari sovereign wealth funds, and L’imad Holding Co, owned by the government of Abu Dhabi. So it seems things are going to heat up here.
As far as the charts, Netflix has taken a beating as of late now down over 29% off the highs and below a major support line:
As far as Warner Bros. its up over 1.6x since Sept. this battle may push WBD well above $30 a share will see:
Another stock in the news today, JP Morgan, who announced a much larger expense forecast for 2026 some $105bn. Some social media accounts are suggesting today’s losses are related to the massive Silver short that JPM employs but those reports are not substantiated. Magnelibra readers know that $296 has and continues to be the massive longer term top line:
Sorry but this chart looks like crap and anyone that owns JPM into a rate cut cycle that continues, into a margin compression, into a CRE environment that continues to see massive writedowns, well, isn’t looking at the macro outlook correctly. This is not an Ai tech stock, this is a legacy bank with a $60trn derivatives book!
Ok so onto the FOMC where its widely expected they will cut 25bp tomorrow. We aren’t sure if the US bond market will like it or not, but the front end of the curve should continue to outperform the longer end. This will be the general theme until risk assets reprice and the economy really turns. A couple of themes to watch out for tomorrow post the decision:
Will rate cuts be taken as a green light to buy risk assets or will the market begin to realize the true nature of these rate cuts, which is a deteriorating real global economy.
Will gold and silver continue to gain traction against the weakening global fiat currencies.
Will the FOMC announce the reignition of Quantitative Easing (QE) as the FOMC balance sheet hit $6.606Trn last week down from their $8.965 peak back in January of 2022. This represents a reduction of 26.3% or $2.36Trn dollars. Some outlets are reporting a possible TBill purchasing program, but nothing concrete out of the FOMC.
As far as the US Govt 10Y yield chart, we know major supports lie down at 3.95% and that the 4.25% will likely be the first rejection area. This area is also backed up by the Fib 0.382% retrace level of 4.20%. We suspect the market to run yields up initially but then work those higher yields back down and ultimately back down to test 3.95%:
Here is the US Govt 2Y yield chart here we plot the yields in white and the blue lines are the daily moves in basis points 3.56% is key here:
Here is the 30Y yield chart with 4.82% the key here, we suspect we may see a pop above and rejection there to then see yields circle back down:
You see, we here at Magnelibra look to simplify what many try to complicate, its complex but its not complicated. We believe we are running into a very important point in time, one which the monetarist global central bank regimes will be competing with public decentralized networks for business and debt money will become increasingly scrutinized. We aren’t sure what this transition means for everything, but we are damn sure we will be here consistently trying to break it all down as it happens. One thing we are sure of is that the law of large numbers is exposing this false premise of print to prosperity and that the global cooperation game is hanging on by threads.
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***DAILY SUBSCRIBER ONLY SECTION DATA***
Magnelibra CTA Futures Market Trend Sentiment (Our proprietary commodity trading advisory futures market sentiment long/neutral/short market flows indicator) The portfolio is made up of the core futures markets we cover and the indicators are for single contracts of the futures market, whether long, short or zero neutral. The P+L is generated via the starting daily position and the ending daily settlement. This is considered a high risk alternative strategy. However most investors should leave a portion of their overall portfolio within a high risk basket. Some of the percentages of the overall portfolio dedicated to high risk should vary from 3% to 18% depending on ones overall time to invest and risk profiles. We added the Sharpe to our data now as well for those quantitative types!
NOTABLE CHANGES: Please note the neutral Silver futures position, the volatility despite the obvious up trend will keep this from a long position at this point and as a fundamental hedge for longs in copper and gold is also unwarranted. This week changes so far ZF is neutral and CL is short.
Move to “1” Long Bias:
Move to “0” Neutral Bias:
Move to “-1” Short Bias:
The U.S. Bond Yield Curve (This is our daily graphic displaying the U.S. bond market yield curve changes. We follow the 2 year thru 30 year durations. Please note that bond prices work inversely to yield changes so for instance if bond prices are rising and moving upward, then their yields are falling or moving downward. We also track the relationship between the durations known as US Yield Curve Spreads, when we list it as 2s5, we are comparing the yield differential between the 2 year vs the 5 year with the positive/negative viewed from the higher durations perspective.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened slightly today as bond yields rose across maturities. That short term noise does not change our core conviction:
Our base case remains a decisive steepening of the yield curve over the next 12–18 months.
We expect the FOMC will be forced to cut the Fed Funds rate aggressively, bringing it to 2.5% by the end of 2026.
Those cuts will drive long-term yields substantially higher relative to short-term rates, producing a classic steepening outcome.
This is not a hope it’s our highest-conviction macro call. Players are still advised to stay long the curve meaning long the shorter durations (2s, 3s or 5s vs the longer end 10s and 30s)
Here is today’s yield curve vs the yield highs and lows and this really puts the steepening into perspective:
Look at the 5s10 starting to play catch up to the curve steepening (blue line):
Daily Settlement Sheet (Magnelibra Futures and Cash bond market coverage of the daily settlement prices and dollar value of the contracts given move)
US Interest Rate Futures and Cash Markets plus Yield and Inter-commodity Spreads: Bond prices down a bit lower pre FOMC:
Equity Index Futures:
Dollar and FX Futures:
Energy Futures:
Metal Futures:
German Futures:
The 5 & 30 Day rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers (The last 5 trading days and 22 trading days net changes)
Silver the big winner this year wow!
Magnelibra MEGA9s Portfolio Tracker (This is a synthetic long only portfolio of the Top 9 largest equities by market cap. We started this tracker because we understand Ai dominates the investment landscape and operates in a binary construct. What we mean is that it issues a buy or a sell and will do so in reinforcing mechanisms, meaning if alpha is rising it will add, if it is falling it well sell and remove. We also created a “hedge” for those that want a more active approach to tactically maximizing their long only static portfolio of equities)
This week we will look to hedge by working the QQQ 635 calls at $5 or better to start the week, the FOMC may provide that fuel to get it off. AVGO continues to outperform:
MEGA9s total market cap chart (This chart represents the total market cap of the MEGA9s and lists the 21pMA in pink along with the 50p and 200p MA)
We will continue to present the Founding Member Data here for our current subscribers as a token of our appreciation. We hope you guys think about joining in, if you don’t have an allocation to the digital space, then perhaps our discretionary incentivized membership may be the easiest way for you to participate in the digital revolution!
***Founding Member Digital Strategy Section***
Founder Digital Strategy Membership Tier Data -This is our core digital strategy data specifically tailored to our Founder members. This is our flagship strategy targeting the digital currency arena. We are offering our subscribers a unique insight into what we feel are the best to offer in the space, while also creating a proprietary basket showcasing our ability to correctly decipher this new marketplace. We plan on offering our subscribers a discretionary reward at the end of each fiscal year, both highlighting our commitment to you our base but to show you the true power of a decentralized trustless system where we can all benefit! Please subscribe today and harness the power of the decentralized digital currency future!
The Digital Top 10 jumped $116Bn in market cap today. The Magnelibra flagship Founder Digital Strategy is +8.6% vs the equal weight Top 10 that we keep track of which is -4.6%. We believe in our proprietary methodology to outperform an equal weight top 10 digital basket. Our Founders Digital Strategy mix is based upon what we believe to be the best formula out there and is designed to keep you well ahead of the pack. Our Digital Strategy comes with membership discretionary rewards, so we hope you join in on the decentralized future as we try to create a new path forward:
As always it is our goal to beat the equal weight index. We want you guys to participate so sign onto the Founders Strategy, we know you will not be disappointed and once you realize what it is we are trying to create for all of you, well we are certain you will be absolutely surprised and amazed and you will be bragging to all your friends and most certainly way ahead of everyone else! By subscribing at the Founder Tier level you will be part of the decentralized monetary future, a trustless future network that rewards hard work, that rewards integrity and rests at the very heart of good natured mankind and its future prosperity, we hope you join in!
Here is the comparison chart:
As far as Bitcoin, we have now established our base case downward trend channel which should dominate the negative sentiment in Bitcoin over the next 12 months:
Ultimately we suspect Bitcoin will test and eventually reverse the decline at $39345, that is our ultimate rebuy area for a prolonged downturn and most likely will result with major liquidations from all the BTC treasury companies and pension funds who have mistakenly bought in up here.
Here is our BTC/Tether market cap comparison chart:
Strategy Inc / BTC Trading Tracker (Bitcoin vs MSTR equity, Our Strategy Inc. Covered Call Portfolio Tracker, Long 100 shares MSTR and short 1, 3% to 7% out of the money call on Monday’s open each week) For those playing along at home, please note, this long MSTR strategy that incorporates a short covered call hedge is something you cannot pick and choose to do one week to the next! This is a mandatory weekly hedge vs your long holdings. Volatility continues to get stripped out and crushed, buying Bitcoin outright vs MSTR is always the preferred exposure, if you were wondering.
If you want BTC exposure, your better off owning the BTC outright and not some pseudo derivative like MSTR. If you want exposure via MSTR, then we suggest if your account value warrants it, to sell covered calls to hedge your risk and lower your overall risk over time.
The Strategy Inc, covered call strat will not sell calls this week, this is a technical decision and we suspect we may see a short term rally here and its not optimal to hedge given the current setup. MSTR did opt to issue shares to create a $1.44bln dollar reserve for future dividend payouts. This week MSTR also issued more shares to buy more BTC. We have the details in the following charts. If you are long and own a 100 shares or more, we highly suggest you follow our directional call selling strategy that we provide you here:
Strategy Inc. added 10,624 BTC this week with the total reaching 660,624 BTC at an avg price of $74,696 and the premium mNAV is at 1.08. Their BTC per Share ratio is now 0.1874% on this weeks dilution. We do believe the recent issuance was forced and it does expose the fragility of Strategy Inc. and their plan for holding BTC. For us, they are merely a levered hedge fund now fully reliant on the returns of a single asset, talk about concentrated risk!
Ok members, take the day and seize it, know your going to win and win!
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Have a great day!
-Team Magnelibra
Support directly to our BTC address if you can: 3DvDvPnjwu5Fd6sagAYmiFXA2fPkjJf2cp
Anyone interested in investing in Monero (XMR) please reach out, we have a link to Kraken below if you use my referral code or link to try it, we’ll both earn 75 USD when you trade $200 USD of crypto in the app! (PLEASE CHECK YOUR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS! NY RESIDENCE CANNOT BUY XMR ON KRAKEN) -Absurd we know!
Code: y4wsyws7
Link: https://proinvite.kraken.com/9f1e/11l9bp1z
Additionally we would be glad to consult anyone interested in getting involved here. As always we view these crypto currencies in the same realm as futures, high risk, high reward, and every portfolio should have a small percentage of their overall portfolio in investments like this.
So if interested please reach out to the email below directly and we can discuss this further. The future of financial payment systems will be digital decentralized and we are still in the infancy of this fascinating technology!
If anyone is interested in working on a digital currency project and joining in as a core investor to help lay the foundation for what is to come, please reach out!