Subscriber Update Jan15 2026

As always Magnelibra Readers, lets begin with our positive daily affirmation:

“If you can create it in your mind and you can believe it in your heart, then you can achieve it!”

Before we get into the markets let’s take a look at the real estate market. We keep hearing home owners won’t sell that they have so much equity built up, well the next year should be pretty interesting as sellers out match buyers by 37%:

Housing is adjustments take years and let’s just say we might just be seeing the continuation of an over bought, over priced and once again stubborn housing market as sellers refuse to lower prices and buyers refuse to pay up. Jon Brooks on X had a great chart, just let this sink in:

We know its a different housing market than 2006 but honestly the basis for the insane price increases are always the same, too much debt money. We have countless examples of leverage being wiped out now in the CRE markets and we suspect retail housing will follow suit.

Another chart we want to look at today is the global market cap for equities. If the big guns start to rotate out of the U.S. and into the other maligned markets, let’s just say we could have a huge decadal move unfolding which would see the U.S. markets underperform. Look its all about money flows and we know where the money has been so concentrated, in fact we call them the MEGA9s and you know them all too well. Could this start to unfold, the reallocation of capital would be massive:

Another chart long time MTR readers are used to is us posting what we call the “negative carry” chart. You see we are bond traders by default and negative carry is a killer. What we mean by negative carry is that your funding costs are higher than your return on your fixed investment. What you can see from our data chart is that post a negative carry environment, as the Federal Reserve normalizes the yield curve, equities tend to lose out. This is most likely due to a worsening economy, higher structural unemployment and capital flows readjusting to higher risk and moving toward capital preservation. We have thwarted the equity downfall thus far, but is it only a matter of time?

Ok as far as the equity markets go, lets look at another one of our global macro indicators and that is the SP500 to Nasdaq futures spread chart:

The SP500 has put in a nice base here off of that test and reversal of the longer term down trend support channel. Should this spread move back above -$160k we would suspect the overall tone of the equity markets to sour and the Nasdaq to sell off vis a vis.

A quick look now at the QQQ ETF where we look to be stuck in a 3 month consolidation pattern:

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