The CryptoCorner April 2nd 2018 Crypto Supports Being Tested
The Crypto Corner Apr 2nd, 2018
It’s safe to say the Crypto markets continue to give up massive ground, certainly testing the resolve of the HODLers. We however don’t need to be reminded that in January of 2017 Bitcoin was trading with a $1k handle, so we aren’t that concerned. Those that were late to the party, even after many opportunities to get into Bitcoin well south of $3k, well for you folks, its park it away and look another day. Even Litecoin, Ethereum and the like were Sub $10 last year so hey, if you bought on the highs, you will just have to grin and bear it and trust that the blockchain ecosystem is slowly being built out. We are huge optimists in the arena but we must not lose site of the fact that the price of some coins came too far too fast, its really that plain and simple. In no way will this years down trend damper our enthusiasm because we know in the long run, death in fiat monetary systems is assured, and even if the fiats last longer than we think, the constant debasement will make their value continually diminish and thus Bitcoin and Crypto will become a store of wealth. So, with all that said, its safe to say Bitcoin has hit some levels that we feel longer term players may begin to accumulate once again. We’ve read quite a bit of analysis pointing to sub $5k in Bitcoin, but we feel a range is forming and it sits between $6300 and $11700. So, for now those are our parameters and we will stick with it until either level breaks. In any case we are long term bulls and we feel that Bitcoin will continue to dominate over the other coins, until something proves worthy, we aren’t removing that bias. This isn’t to say there aren’t some very interesting ICO’s out there, but in the US, the SEC is making it very difficult for investors to even get excited. We hate to see America so afraid, so against innovation, and unfortunately the US will not be the Crypto Haven of the world. Zug and Switzerland are by far paving the way, but we hope the states start to have some say so over the Federal Government in terms of the future of blockchain technology utilization and implementation. Anyway, let’s look at the weekly settlements for trade date ending Friday March 30th:
As you can see Bitcoin dipped below $7k and we view this level as a sort of pivot and we will expect this level to be supported and would like to see a few days sustained close above there in order
to have a clear bullish bias.
Ethereum has just gotten hammered lately and we warned of the usage of ICOs and the ERC20 token standard may contribute in its downward move. ETH dropped nearly 27% last week and it is starting to get near some real juicy levels. Litecoin also was taken down quite hard dropping 30% to $120. We aren’t sure if the lightning network is affecting the draw of Litecoin but something doesn’t smell right! All in all, the complex we follow lost on average 26% and maybe algo HFT traders are to blame, maybe futures arbs are to blame, or maybe the overall risk markets including the equity markets in general losing their mojo is to blame. There has been increasing talk from some very heavy hitters out there observing the fact that Bitcoin may be leading the entire financial markets moves. We touched upon this a few times prior and indeed correlations may be rising.Ok let’s look at our CryptoCorner Index which settled at $2666.59 losing -$763.51 or 22.3% for the week:
The Index is down 59.2% from its all-time highs and considering the 61.8% Fib number, we should see some natural overall support for the complex but we aren’t quite sure what will drive the market higher. Plain oversold metrics, or maybe a successful ICO of some kind. Once again, the blockchain market is in its infancy and innovation will continue, this we are certain. So, we are cautious dip buyers here for a potential 40% bounce!
When we look at the top 5 Bitcoin wallets the top wallet is nearing the 200k BTC mark as it added 6920 BTC on the week, here is a pic of the top 5:
A few noteworthy news items this week:
It was reported that Blockchain startups raised nearly $3 Billion from ICO’s over the first two months of the year.(BraveNewCoin)
Venture Capital has raised $434 Million since December (Coindesk)
Morgan Creek Capital run by Mark Yusko is looking to tap the markets in order to raise $500 million for a Blockchain fund
Google bans all Cryptocurrency mining extensions from Chrome Store (CCN)
OK now to a few technical charts, first up Bitcoin and you can see the importance of $7k:
Looking at Ethereum $369 was huge and it bounced and a sustained trade above $395 is in the first hurdle, below $369 look out:
Our last chart is Monero (XMR), $153 is absolutely huge and we should see a bounce like the last time from here, it offers a decent risk reward here as below $153 is negative:
We hope you enjoyed this week’s CryptoCorner, we look forward to continuing the ever expanding blockchain and cryptocurrency world. We strive to not waste your time and rather point out things that we deem important in the continually evolving space and we hope that point stands out. We understand the plethora of updates that exist and we are glad you have chosen to stick with us. Please forward this to your family, your friends and have them sign up for the letter and please go read our other weekly global macro letter that is updated each week at our blog www.econemotions.com and don’t forget to hit the subscribe button! Cheers!
DISCLAIMER: For Educational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodity futures or options on neither commodity futures nor an endorsement for the purchase and sale of ICOs or Cryptocurrency and should not be construed as such. The risk of trading securities, futures and options can be substantial and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from the author Mike Agne of Agne Asset Management LLC (AAM) and owner of www.econemotions.com and The CryptoCorner Newsletter, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. The CryptoCorner logo and name is the sole right and property of (AAM). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, (AAM) makes no warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.
DO NOT COPY OR FORWARD INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT AND OR APPROVAL