Non Farm Payroll, the biggest number of the year in our book and its just a few hours away! Market expectations are for a gain of 75k but an uptick by a tenth in the Unemployment rate to 4.3%.
As usual the equity markets are positioned for a no matter what “good news” move, however we do not think that will end up being the case. Obviously nobody knows how the markets will react, but here is the thing, tomorrow is just one day and one day does not dictate much of anything. So with that said, let’s look at the QQQs and see how things are shaping up going into the number:
The QQQs spent some time well within the coiling range, but today’s buying put it just outside the wedge once again. I suspect we may see a knee jerk positive reaction no matter what the number is and 581 will be key, a test and rejection and close back in the wedge would be the kind of ignition signal for the bears especially on a close inside the wedge on the weekly charts. The bulls will need to maintain a close outside this wedge to continue the bull theme:
As far as the US bond market, the 10Y is getting awfully close to a full bull mode as 4.09% will bring in a lot of forced mechanical and systematics we believe and start to usher in a renewed enthusiasm toward lower rates from here:
Ok there isn’t really much else to say, tomorrow has been a long time in the making and if we finally get that negative non-farm payroll print, expect a massive jump in 50bp cut odds because currently nobody even thinks there’s a chance!
Ok that is it guys time for the subscriber only section where we provide all the days data, all our trading trend sentiments and cover Strategy Inc’s endless endeavor into Bitcoin. By subscribing we believe that if you are proactive and start implementing some of the things that we present, you will not only improve your odds of winning but also gain an invaluable mindset to take through all facets of your life. So think about subscribing and becoming a supporting member, at the least share our work if you can!
Cheers,
Magnelibra
********************SUBSCRIBER ONLY SECTION**********************
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Magnelibra Trading & Research to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.