Tracker Updates, Nvidia, Jackson Hole

Alright, so yesterday everyone’s obviously banking on Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, all the analysts, have gone full bull raising targets and the stock was up over 8% yesterday. Today it also put in a new all time high, but the RSIs do not look good, this looks more like a rug set up to us, but if you like the longer term outlook then bulls will be bulls. Technically we do not like it and do not view appropriate risk/rewards at these levels:

We also have the Jackson Hole Meeting this week where the worlds monetarists get together to relax and discuss appropriate policy and viewpoints. JPowell speaks on Friday, so we are certain many will be looking for clues as to any changes in wording, sentiment, tone, etc. We know that the economy has turned, we know everyone else knows and its only a matter of time before the FRB will have to cave and pause their policy of hikes for good. We keep hearing this comparison that Powell doesn’t want to make an Art Burns mistake of the 70s, yet we also know these comparisons are truly unfounded. We have studied this time period, read the FRB memorandums and the current FRB is nothing like the old FRB. This is a completely different regime, a completely different time period and a much larger, globally connected monetary system. However…what we do believe is that this time period 1967-1982 can very well analog today’s time period in regards to overall equity performance. We see that concentration of wealth is leading to concentration of investments and this year the MEGA8s as we like to call them is evidence enough. For those that need more evidence, can simply look at Buffett’s single largest holding, Apple at a hefty 51% of the total portfolio. Yea, yea he has other holding companies, but that doesn’t change the fact, its a massive concentration.