Undecided? Tech and Bonds Rally
Voting should never come to this
Well what can we say, we certainly expected a contest but what transpired is anything but. It’s 2020 and don’t take this the wrong way, this isn’t a political statement, but rather an obvious, open, logical statement, Voting should not be this esoteric! Period! The fact that we don’t have a mandatory Voter ID law is absurd, absolutely absurd. Big Tech knows everything, the know where everyone is at all times, so why can’t we use an ID to vote, everything else, we mean everything else requires an ID, but the very fundamental right to our Republic does not? Why? Well the only logical thought is that it would be tougher to rig! Ok so that’s it, we will stick with our call about a Trump victory and last nights early Arizona call was a play book out of the Mexican 1988 PRI over the NDF narrative spin. Well this isn’t Mexico, its not 1988 and its painstakingly obvious shenanigans were had and all in Democrat run stronghold counties, that we are certain!
Ok as for the markets, we figured the election hedge was SP puts and those worked as the market was hit early on but then the big buyers came in, mainly in the Nasdaq and Long end of the Bond market. As we look at the settlements from yesterday, the big $Value winner was the Nasdaq almost hitting the +$10k marker and is now up some 34% for the year, meanwhile the Dow and Russell2k are down -1.9% and -3.6% respectively. So its not to hard to see where the money flow is. The SP500 had a decent day closing at 3435 +73.50 and is up 6.7% on the year.
We also saw the long end of the US Bond market up a massive 151 ticks or 4 full handles and 23 ticks. (Remember bonds trade in 32nds) as yields across the board plunged double digits with the US Govt 10-Year back down to 0.768% after toying with the 0.90% area during the election.
The US Dollar gave back a little ground but FX markets were mostly a mixed bag. Energies gained and Crude knocking on the door again at the $40 level. The metals were hit just a bit as both Gold and Silver lost ground losing $14 and $0.44 cents respectively. Ok, here is the Magnelibra Econemotions Settlement page for November 4th 2020:
In case you wonder once again the who, the what and how the central banks are steering the markets and why fundamentals or underlying fundamentals, seemingly don’t matter anymore, look no further than this chart:
With the ECB increasing QE we can see the writing on the wall and how at this level or quantity of money, things start to go parabolic, because the more money (debt) you print, the opposing force of efficacy falls commensurately. What do we mean? Well the more you print the less effective each unit of measurement, in this case, dollar, yen , euro becomes. So expect this chart to continue to go parabolic and buy less and less growth but continues the charade just a bit longer.
We are going to include the Global Futures Benchmark Program Positions Tracker for those that want to see how we are navigating. We continue to position defensively despite the massive run up yesterday in equities which didn’t surprise us but rather is a bit premature considering we are still uncertain as to the vocalized and substantiated end result. The tracker was hurt by the massive move in the NQ but in aggregate we feel that the tracker won’t flip to a more longer profile until we have a certain election outcome. We can only say things are starting to turn back positive and the Hedged Short model is close to flipping and going long a few contracts and will keep the Founders Subscribers posted. If you want to learn more of the benefits of receiving our proprietary sentiment, don’t hesitate to reach out or subscribe today:
Speaking of elections and if the turnout numbers happen to be true, we would like to congratulate Wisconsin for posting an on average participation rate in this years election of nearly 90%. That is a massive number meaning 9 out of 10 registered voters did indeed enact their right to vote, well done Wisconsin, here is our graphic:
We also did a little statistical analysis on the ongoing Pennsylvania count and here is what we found, Biden would have to run at a 2 to 1 pace to beat Trump and after looking at the changing registration rates over the last 4 years, we highly doubt that this would be plausible given the data we viewed and the over 4x increase in Republican registrations vs Democrats over the last 4 years:
In Arizona we ran some stats and found that Biden flipped the state using current data by nearly 23 % over Hillary Clintons performance in 2016, where HRC retained 0.92 of every vote to Joe Biden’s current rate of 1.13 all in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 3%. Our analysis would suggest these election results need tighter scrutiny as the demographic and statistical trends suggest the current results to be outliers and inconsistent with what the underlying fundamental data suggests:
Alright as of this post, the equity markets continue to forge ahead and are no doubt pricing in a new stimulus plan from whomever is leading the charge here come final result time, here is the current status of the equities from Tradingview.com:
We like the current equity technicals and we are looking at this set up as extremely long term bullish and will look to our proxy positions tracker to turn and lean to a more Hedged Long approach in the near future, here is the SP500 chart:
Alright that’s it folks, keep your head on a swivel and don’t get caught up in all the election hoopla, these things have a way of working themselves out!
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-Magnelibra Econemotions
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