US Yield Curve, AAPL, AMZN Tumble
Market Forces vs Fantasy Land
Our last post talked about the Bitcoin stock to flow model and ironically last week Laura Shin’s Unchained Podcast interviewed PlanB the inventor of the Bitcoin S2F model, please give it a listen, see what you think, we just thought it was a very interesting interview, here is the link: Unchained with PlanB
Next let’s just jump right in to the Apple and Amazon earnings and we can’t help but wonder if this will be used as an excuse to see the writing on the wall that the global yield curves are painting. So let’s look at the damage, first up Apple from Zhedge:
Revenue $83.3B (est. $84.6B) -First revenue miss since 2017
EPS $1.24 (est. $1.24)
Q4 iPhone Revenue $38.87B (Est. $41.60B)
Q4 Products Rev. $65.08B (Est. $68.72B)
Q4 Service Rev. $18.28B (Est. $17.57B)
Q4 Wearables, Home & Accessories $8.79B (Est. $9.28B)
Peak Apple continues to see net Cash decline:
After hours trading sees Apple down 3.53%:
As for Amazon from Zhedge:
Net Sales $110.8BN (Est. $111.81B)
EPS $6.12, (Est. $8.96)
Operating Income $4.85BN (Est. $5.62B)
AWS net sales $16.11 billion (Est. $15.40 billion)
Online stores net sales $49.94 (Est. $51.53 billion)
Q4 Net Sales $130.0BN to $140BN, missing Wall Street est. $141.62B
Q4 Operating income between $0 billion and $3.0 billion, also badly missing estimates of $7.44BN
As far as projected revenue growth:
Amazon continues to get pounded after the close down over 4%:
We can’t help but think we are witnessing the beginning of the end of globalization, not just on the economic forefront but on the geopolitical front as well. As tensions heat up in Taiwan and tensions in the global supply chain continue to deteriorate its charts like this that make this notion of gridlock obvious:
This is not a trend that bodes well for anyone and its something that is certainly not reversed very easily. All of this combined with exogenous market structural forces seemingly hell bent on correcting some of the fiat imbalances seems ripe for some major structural adjustments.
When we look at inflation we can see, once again that the 5y5y forwards are pushing yearly highs not seen since 2014:
German inflation is also confirming this trend (oh boy Hjalmar Schacht is turning in his grave)
However all of this inflation should come as no surprise. When you have global central banks printing and buying all over the globe, only a fool would expect any other outcome. This should be obvious to all those that understand things simply for what the are and when central banks conjure digital dollars out of thin air, well one should expect asset prices and imbalances to run rampant. One look at this chart and it should be very obvious:
Where do these astute central bankers think this ferocious appetite for printing leads? Well we know what it leads to:
Asymmetrical risk/reward
Asset/Price Extension
Long term debt obligation increase
Massive concentration of wealth
Socialist outcries because the commoner has zero chance
What seems so obvious to us isn’t obvious to others, or it may just be ignored, the latter is by far the easier pill to swallow.
Well with all this fiat devaluation going on, then it should also be no surprise that Bitcoin continues to shine:
Firmly back above $57k which is our line in the sand for now, Bitcoin continues to discount global currencies in a massive way. Furthermore we are excited that the United States now holds the reigns to the largest share of mining:
We also read this week that PIMCO CIO Daniel Ivascyn announced that his firm,
“Is looking at potentially trading certain cryptocurrencies as part of our trend-following strategies or quant-oriented strategies, then doing more work on the fundamental side" (interview with CNBC’s Leslie Picker for Delivering Alpha)
We particularly liked his other statement, where we couldn’t agree more,
“You have to understand decentralized finance, because it will be disruptive, and it very well may disrupt our industry, in our business in particular,"
We hope you realize the massive impact of that statement from one of the most respected firms out there. We know we do!
Now on to the tech charts for the futures markets. As we talked about the global yield curves inverting, before we get to the futures, lets look at the US govt 5s30 yield curve, where it has touched the longer term target reversal area of 75 basis points. We are in no way suggesting this thing won’t go lower just that this is a major inflection and possible breathing point for the trade:
Alright let’s look at the Nasdaq we feel that 15483 is key and a trade below will bring sellers in to roll this pig over again:
The SP500 also looks like it is once again a bit heavy and technically we think the 4546 area is key, a trade below would help the sellers case:
Alright, we believe you get where we stand in regards to sentiment. This September high to October low to new October high, seems a bit fast moneyish and with the global central banks now stuck well within a rock and a hard place, the obvious buy any dip mentality should be challenged once again here.
Something seems off and the global continuity is being well obscured and kept out of most corporate media. That is our new term for main stream media. It is no longer main stream media, for we know its controlled propaganda in fact, Russell Brand put out an excellent piece to this point. If you don’t know who he is, or you haven’t heard his podcasts or YouTube well you are missing out on one of the best independent journalists out there. In fact we will link his latest one here, so see for yourself, Russell Brand -Rogan -Media - BigPharma
Finally lets be on the lookout this weekend because we just had an “X” class solar flare and it will hit late Friday. X flares are pretty rare. These X class solar flares ionize the upper atmosphere and create currents that effect the Earths magnetic field, causing auroras and this weekend may see them dip to the lower latitudes. The electric grid and our own biology may be effected as well, in fact there is significant research in this arena about cosmic rays/geomagnetic storms and biological, ecological affects, here is a chart for you:
Long time readers know we are firm believers in the electric universe and plasma physics and we hope you decide to research it all for yourself and gain a firmer grasp as to the reality of the realm we live in!
Be safe out there and we hope you learned something today.
Till next time.
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