Very Important Week Begins with QQQ A Shaky Start

Subscriber Data for Sep2 2025

Good evening MTR readers, as you know its NFP week and we touched upon our concerns a bit in yesterday’s post. The QQQ ETF is our target market that we like to proxy for our overall risk asset theme. The QQQs opened up weak but did manage to recover some by the end of the trading day. However when we look at the chart, you can tell the battle is just beginning here and that the longer term massive wedge formation is exerting some huge underlying pressure for both the bears and the bulls to make or break it once and for all!

As you can see our weekly support was already tested and held first time down. Rest assure another assault there will most likely not produce the same result. There are many forces working against risk assets right now and the most important being the FOMC is much closer to reigniting their rate cut cycle once again.

Historically the first 3 months in post rate cut do not, we repeat DO NOT bode well for risk assets like equities. We can’t urge you enough to reassess your positions and adjust accordingly now. Yeah we know your in it for the long haul, you don’t market time and its fools play, we get it.

However as we have said time and time again, there is nothing about today’s markets that resemble your grand dads or your dads equity markets, these are Ai driven systematic modelers and they do not care about historical inference, they care about capital flows and velocity.

Everyone thinks the markets are efficient, they most certainly are not, in fact the markets one could say are no longer even markets, but bastions of excess hoards of wealth driven by 3 decades of 9.7% annualized Federal Reserve asset expansion. You guys know how critical we are that humans understand this concept. By the way that figure is annualized, and for us that is the real inflation rate. One question you should ask yourself is where would asset prices be, both equity and real estate if that annualized figure was just half that value? Back of the envelope would suggest well 50% lower from here and that may just be about right, but we will never know, because if its one thing that’s as certain as the sun rising, its the FOMC will expand its balance sheet whenever SHTF! Most don’t believe it but here is our proprietary data chart:

So the FOMC will embark on the new rate cut cycle and we know Uncle Sam will be happy, because we know our govt doesn’t like paying out $92 billion a month in interest as this graphic shows for July:

So you get the picture, you know the reason why rates must come down, less inflation born from interest payouts and to force down the equilibrium of all credit rates. Risk isn’t properly priced and we suspect lower Fed Funds will push credit spreads wider as people realize the economy isn’t as great as many believe it to be and the worry about future inflation will be relegated to the dustbin of history as DEFLATION becomes the necessary them for the next decade or so.

This also means the likes of all the Gold and Silver bugs that are cheering on the rate cuts will be met with real forced capital raising selling as leverage continues to get systematically destroyed, I mean have you guys seen the commercial real estate numbers lately? WolfStreet posted this on “X” today:

Now back to Gold and Silver, yes they are running but we suspect this to get Coppered once the FOMC embarks upon their new path. Don’t get us wrong we wouldn’t fade this move in fact our CTA model sentiment is long Gold but short Silver because it just seems safer that way. For now Gold continues to run and its now past our weekly resistance level:

We suspect Silver will hit the weekly resistance soon as well up at $42.675:

We will very much welcome any discount in any metals especially Gold and when risk assets do reprice, rest assure, Gold will once again dominate and it will continue to outperform the SP500 on an annualized basis, like it has for the last 30 years:

One last chart before we get to the subscriber only section is none other than Nvidia, the Wall Street poster child of excess…well our bull/bear pivot is hit and we would suspect a daily close below will bring in some decent follow through, so keep an eye here on the $168 level

Alright that is it guys, we believe that if you follow our work, start implementing some of the things that we present, you will not only improve your odds of winning but also gain an invaluable mindset to take through all facets of your life. So think about subscribing and becoming a supporting member, at the least share our work if you can!

Cheers,

Magnelibra

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