We Told You So
Go Back and Read Our March 18th Post-Everything has Changed
In our post from the 18th we told our readers that “Everything has changed!”
Here is what we said,
We have learned long ago that America’s debt pile has grown far past its utility and its a debt pile that has been built on the mountains of endless cash spent being the worlds hegemony. This debt which will hit $40 Trillion some time in the next few months, is destroying the global economies even if they do not know it. Too much of anything is never a good thing and we believe we are at the forefront of a global repositioning that will define the next 100 years. Throw in the exponentially increasing capabilities of AI and well, all bets are off as to where humanity will find itself in the next decade.
One thing is certain, the baby boomer debt fueled monetarist asset price inflation of the last 50 years will end because the structural dynamics of what pushed everything to those limits will no longer be viable. So few see it, so few can prepare for it, rather they will just be caught off guard and unless you continue to walk the path with us, you too will succumb to the coming changes and find yourselves much worse off. To put it plainly—EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED!
This week is full of data from retail sales to the all important non farm payrolls on Friday. It is Holy Week as well and we will not be as active as usual with our posts. Honestly the charts have spoken and we suspect any significant rally no matter what the catalyst will be short lived.
It seems that retail is finally awakening to the ongoing deteriorating fundamentals and now we will see just how far retail’s resolve is in believing all the Ai hype, with believing that the U.S. can wage a successful and swift campaign in the Middle East. We believe the main stream has both massively miscalculated the odds on both of those fronts.
Yes we know, its not always the most popular opinion that ends up being right, in fact we as contrarian realists often point out the fact that its usually the obscure facts, those on the fringe that have demonstrated their worth. We aren’t conspiracy theorists, but we know our physical reality is far more chaotic and uncertain than humans tend to want to believe. Its almost like mankind has a propensity for chaos and a very little desire to just live in harmony and peace. At least it sure seems that way.
We are going to post last Friday’s data in this first free post and will follow up later tonight as well with today’s closes and data. We will include some recent charts of todays action but the writing is definitely on the wall and if you are willing to ride this storm out and claim that you are a buy and hold type investor, well good luck with that, its going to be a long road ahead.
We are making this entire letter and data available to all our subscribers so enjoy and take our data and our analytics and formulate your own market opinions. Our over 25 years of trading fixed income derivatives gives us a unique insight into how the trading world truly works and we try to convey best we can what we have learned from a life spent in the trading trenches.
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Daily Market Data
MAGNELIBRA FUTURES MARKET TREND PROGRAM
This offers a proprietary, data-driven perspective on futures market flows. It tracks long, neutral, and short positions across the key contracts we monitor, with indicator signals provided on a per-contract basis. The portfolio construction reflects our core coverage, and daily P&L is measured from opening to settlement, offering a transparent view of strategy performance.
This approach is classified as a high-risk, alternative strategy. It is generally prudent for investors to allocate only a portion of their portfolios to such high-risk baskets. Depending on investment horizon and risk tolerance, exposure may range from 3% to 18% of total assets. For readers inclined toward quantitative analysis, we have added the Sharpe ratio to our data suite, providing a more rigorous framework for evaluating risk-adjusted returns.
NOTABLE CHANGES -As of end of trading 3/27/26:
Move to “1” Long Bias:
Move to “0” Neutral Bias: S6, A6
Move to “-1” Short Bias:
Futures Market Trend Program Analytics:
THE U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVE DATA
Our daily chart illustrates changes in the U.S. bond market yield curve, focusing on maturities from 2 years to 30 years. It’s important to remember that bond prices move inversely to yields: when bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. We also analyze key relationships between different maturities, referred to as U.S. Yield Curve Spreads. For example, the 2s5 spread compares the yield difference between the 2-year and 5-year bonds, with positive or negative values viewed from the perspective of the longer maturity.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve with a steeper move on Friday and we suspect this could be the start of smarter money coming back into the U.S. Treasury market looking for a little capital protection:
We continue to recommend maintaining long positions on the yield curve, specifically favoring shorter durations such as the 2-year, 3-year, or 5-year maturities over the longer 10-year and 30-year bonds. This positioning reflects our view that shorter-term rates remain more attractive relative to the long end of the curve.
Our base case anticipates a decisive steepening of the yield curve over the next 12 to 18 months.
We expect the FOMC will be compelled to cut the Fed Funds rate significantly, targeting a level of 2.5% by the end of 2026.
Such rate cuts will likely result in long-term yield spreads widening considerably. As longer-dated maturities are less responsive than short-term rates, this dynamic should produce a classic steepening of the yield curve.
Daily Settlement Sheet
Magnelibra provides comprehensive coverage of daily settlement prices and the dollar value of the contracts given move. We believe some of you, newer traders, should concentrate on the dollar value of the moves in the markets we cover so that you gain a better understanding of the real risk exposures involved in trading these instruments.
US Interest Rate Futures and Cash Markets plus Yield and Inter-commodity Spreads:
Equity Index Futures:
Bitcoin Spot, Dollar and FX Futures:
Energy Futures:
Metal Futures:
German Futures:
The 5 day, 30 day and YTD rolling changes with top 3 Winners and losers
This section highlights the top three winners and losers across 5-day, 30-day, and year-to-date rolling periods, providing a concise view of short-term, monthly, and annual net performance.
MAGNELIBRA MEGA9 EQUITY EQUAL WEIGHT MODEL
This tracker models a synthetic, long-only portfolio of the nine largest equities by market capitalization. We launched this tool in response to the growing influence of AI-driven investment strategies, which often follow a binary approach that automatically buys or sells based on performance signals. When alpha increases, these systems add exposure; when it declines, they reduce or exit positions. To support investors seeking more tactical flexibility, we also provide a recommended ‘hedge.’ This enables active management alongside a traditional static long-only equity portfolio.
The MEGA9s portfolio was hammered on Friday dumping $541 billion in total market cap. For those holding long positions, our active hedge recommendations are designed to help you take a more strategic approach to risk management. This week we will await a better location to sell calls on a larger up day. You guys can see the hedged book is outperforming the static long only, which is why we demonstrate this for you. The hedged MEGA9 is -1.0% YTD while the MEGA9 equal weight is -14.6%, that is a massive outperformance:
MEGA9s TOTAL MARKET CAP CHART
This chart displays the combined market capitalization of the MEGA9s, along with the 21-period moving average highlighted in pink, and the 50-period and 200-period moving averages. These technical indicators help identify key support and resistance levels within the portfolio.
What this market cap chart tells us is there really isn’t anything in regards to support until we drop another 20%:
For our younger generation looking at this, we just want to tell you that WHEN you start investing is FAR more IMPORTANT then HOW LONG you plan on being invested. For a history lesson, go back and see who did better if you invested in a simple long term 20 year approach with equity indexes, those that started in 1962 or those that started in 1982! Sorry not all generations have the same potential…that is something nobody but us will tell you.
Important note: Magnelibra Founding Membership Digital Strategy Data is exclusive to the Founding tier and no longer included with regular subscriptions.
We created this dedicated tier to provide serious subscribers with transparent and decentralized access to our proprietary methodology, with no gatekeeping or barriers. Drawing upon decades of real-market experience, we have developed a digital asset strategy that is both educational and designed to deliver discretionary performance upside, along with bonus-style incentives over time.
This membership offers a direct path to the digital currency future, providing greater clarity and a distinct competitive edge.
Join the Founding Membership today. This is the smartest and most direct way to align yourself with the next evolution in finance. Our unique asset basket is designed to outperform the broader crypto market, and we are confident in our ability to deliver on that promise.
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Below is a small sample of the data you can expect as a member. Our goal is to make you an integral part of our decentralized journey, sharing in the benefits of ongoing success. We will cover an equal weight basket, a proprietary digital index strategy and of course Bitcoin and the Strategy Inc. data.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
If you have trading questions, want to discuss market setups, are curious about monetary policy, or have any other topics in mind, we are here to help. Subscribers can click the chat icon to connect directly, or you can reach out to us via DM or email. Our mission is to help you sharpen your skills, become a more informed trader or investor, and continue growing together. Thank you for your ongoing support, for reading, engaging, and believing in our vision.
We genuinely appreciate each and every one of you. Join us on this journey; we believe you will find real value in being part of our community. Wishing you an excellent day ahead!
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